Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf797…0bf2
world · 212 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$40,653 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$36,037 · open +$4,842
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$66,580
Realized+$36,037
Unrealized+$4,842
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses84 / 62
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions79
Markets (closed)146 / 212
Avg bet$1,007
Trades / day70.6
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 79 History 146 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,954
7 days+$10,547
14 days+$26,176
30 days+$34,118
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $10,866 $11,233 +$367 (+3%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 46¢ $6,395 $9,093 +$2,698 (+42%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Yes 42¢ 57¢ $3,150 $4,312 +$1,162 (+37%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 98¢ $3,903 $3,934 +$31 (+1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 86¢ 97¢ $3,450 $3,870 +$420 (+12%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $3,766 $3,746 −$20 (-1%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? No 14¢ 10¢ $4,421 $3,295 −$1,125 (-25%)
Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026? No 54¢ 62¢ $2,778 $3,173 +$395 (+14%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? No 30¢ 26¢ $3,460 $2,915 −$545 (-16%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? No 69¢ 98¢ $1,380 $1,955 +$575 (+42%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No 94¢ 98¢ $1,877 $1,955 +$78 (+4%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $1,807 $1,848 +$41 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $1,176 $1,554 +$378 (+32%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $1,340 $1,540 +$200 (+15%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? No 74¢ 78¢ $1,084 $1,147 +$64 (+6%)
SpaceX vs Tesla - higher valuation on June 30? Tesla 9¢ 10¢ $976 $1,105 +$128 (+13%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $943 $973 +$30 (+3%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $939 $945 +$7 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 87¢ 99¢ $698 $792 +$94 (+13%)
SpaceX IPO: Closing Price Up/Down End of First Month? Up 48¢ 48¢ $671 $672 +$1 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 63¢ 76¢ $553 $668 +$114 (+21%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 65¢ $570 $650 +$80 (+14%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 86¢ 86¢ $516 $518 +$2 (+0%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Yes 81¢ 92¢ $405 $457 +$52 (+13%)
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 30¢ $310 $300 −$10 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $2,060 +$3,759 +182%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 11 $380 +$255 +67%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 11 $4,117 +$2,401 +58%
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 350M by June 5? Jun 10 $524 −$524 -100%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 10 $794 +$62 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $2,300 −$125 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $1,771 +$529 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $12,391 +$4,140 +33%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? Jun 06 $94 +$65 +69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 06 $46 −$46 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: May Jun 06 $52 −$52 -100%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 06 $655 −$115 -18%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 06 $271 −$94 -35%
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormu Jun 06 $724 −$717 -99%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 06 $31 −$22 -70%
Will Magnus Carlsen win Norway Chess 2026? Jun 06 $31 +$66 +212%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 06 $859 +$121 +14%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Barack Obama by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $504 +$96 +19%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 06 $6,103 +$748 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 05 $2,875 +$5,361 +186%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $690b on May 31? Jun 01 $3 +$31 +1150%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $332 +$94 +28%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" in May? Jun 01 $605 +$165 +27%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by May 31? Jun 01 $337 +$496 +147%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $4,155 +$2,295 +55%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $2,760 +$240 +9%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11,117 +$2,229 +20%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $8,660 +$3,713 +43%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? Jun 01 $32 +$114 +354%
Trump approval Up or Down this week? May 31 $14 −$14 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in May? May 31 $3 −$3 -100%
Will MrBeast hit 494 million subscribers by June 30? May 31 $91 −$86 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 31 $5 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 31 $134 +$42 +31%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 31 $186 −$186 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 29 $879 −$52 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 29 $306 +$1,189 +389%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on May 29 $538 +$67 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? May 29 $307 +$10 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 28 $4,025 −$2,757 -68%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 28 $76 +$15 +19%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? May 28 $429 +$28 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 26 $3,300 +$640 +19%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 26 $19 −$19 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 26 $33 +$74 +223%
Will MrBeast hit 491 million subscribers by June 30? May 26 $143 +$10 +7%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through July 31? May 26 $115 +$70 +61%
Enhanced Games: Men’s 100m Sprint World Record Broken? May 25 $468 +$31 +7%
Will Bernie say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" in Maine? May 25 $129 −$129 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $3,873 −$3,642 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 56% +$9,897
tech 13% +$13,099
crypto 11% +$7,758
other 11% +$1,415
politics 4% +$1,805
economics 3% +$5,023
sports 2% +$1,750
finance 1% +$131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $21 4m
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 5¢ $11 36m
Will Julián Álvarez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 18¢ $97 54m
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 23¢ $1 2h
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $205 2h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 51¢ $10 3h
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $0 3h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $4 4h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $769 4h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 5¢ $0 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $1 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $1 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $1 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $1 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $1 4h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 9¢ $0 4h
Will Kylian Mbappe score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 5¢ $0 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 55¢ $1,608 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 55¢ $34 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 55¢ $1 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 55¢ $26 5h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY No 23¢ $1 6h
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $18 6h
Will Jude Bellingham score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 31¢ $37 6h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 55¢ $1,059 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $640 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $490 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $78 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $13 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+54.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +9.4% -1.0% 58% 53% +18.8%
≤30d 101 +68.1% +52.1% 59% 50% +16.2%
≤90d 146 +70.6% +54.4% 58% 49% +13.4%
all 146 +70.6% +54.4% 58% 49% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover70.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +54.4% 49% +13.4%
10% +39.6% 40% +2.5%
15% ← realistic here +26.1% 34% -7.4%
20% +13.7% 32% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $66,580.27 · official $66,606.64 (match) · 3500 history records