Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T04:40:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F7 0xf799…6255 other 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$49 (+5%) realized +$31 · open +$18

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip

Net edge-12%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate75%3W / 1L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$179per market

Trades / day16.0pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit40%portable

Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)-4.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	+5.1%	-4.9%	75%	50%	-4.8%
≤30d	4	+5.1%	-4.9%	75%	50%	-4.8%
≤90d	4	+5.1%	-4.9%	75%	50%	-4.8%
all	4	+5.1%	-4.9%	75%	50%	-4.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover16.0 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.9%	50%	-4.8%
10%	-14.0%	0%	-13.9%
15%	-22.3%	0%	-22.3%
20%	-29.9%	0%	-29.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 58% · top 2 95% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +5% too few recent

Fragile wins

33% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$26 vs −$36 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×2.15 per $1 lost it wins $2.15

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$101

Realized+$31

Unrealized+$18

Win rate (resolved)75%

Wins / losses3 / 1

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)4 / 5

History coverage1d

Avg bet$179

Trades / day16.0

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5	Under	80¢	98¢	$82	$101	+$18 (+22%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 20	$203	−$36	-18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	Jun 19	$200	+$30	+15%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	Jun 19	$207	+$45	+22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$201	+$4	+2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	40¢	$6	46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	40¢	$2	46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	40¢	$3	46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	40¢	$3	46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	40¢	$50	46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	40¢	$4	46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	40¢	$38	46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	40¢	$10	46m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	SELL Yes	40¢	$50	46m
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 2.5	BUY Under	80¢	$83	1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	48¢	$203	2h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	70¢	$230	6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	61¢	$200	6h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	SELL No	100¢	$252	7h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	82¢	$183	17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	82¢	$24	17h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL No	54¢	$205	27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY No	53¢	$201	27h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.70 · official $100.70 (match) · 19 history records