Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:37:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf79a…c0c3 other 162 markets active 2h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$71 (-0%) realized −$71 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%16W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$71now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$24
14 days−$37
30 days−$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$26
politics 23% −$26
sports 18% −$12
crypto 9% −$4
economics 8% −$10
world 4% −$8
culture 3% −$3
finance 2% −$9
tech 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.3% -10.7% 5% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 62 -0.9% -10.4% 6% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 148 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
all 161 -0.6% -10.1% 10% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.45 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$71
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses16 / 145
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage101d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 96¢ 95¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $62 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 19 $232 −$5 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 18 $66 −$5 -8%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $307 −$3 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 18 $104 −$2 -1%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $230 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 17 $60 −$1 -1%
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 16 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $105 $0 -0%
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $46 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 16 $104 −$1 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $55 $0 -0%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $150 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $51 $0 -1%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $53 $0 -1%
Will Washington Wizards win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 12 $17 $0 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $37 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $159 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $52 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 11 $49 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $150 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 10 $53 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $114 −$2 -2%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $51 $0 -1%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $412 −$6 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 09 $49 $0 +1%
Will Portugal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 06 $42 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -1%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $539 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $158 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $257 −$1 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $110 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 04 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Japan reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $9 −$1 -6%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $90 −$1 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $56 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $56 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 02 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $217 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 01 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 01 $466 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $162 −$1 -1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $260 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $162 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $92 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 96¢ $71 1h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $61 2h
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $62 9h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 92¢ $67 10h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $34 18h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 85¢ $60 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 92¢ $66 26h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $56 27h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $56 31h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 96¢ $48 31h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 96¢ $48 38h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $62 39h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $16 47h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $47 47h
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $46 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $46 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $45 2d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 95¢ $45 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $60 2d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $58 2d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $52 3d
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $45 3d
Will Australia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 96¢ $45 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $35 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 97¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.88 · official $70.88 (match) · 705 history records