Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
F7 0xf79b…f0d8 crypto 299 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%288W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day26.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$18
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% +$5
other 3% +$2
finance 2% +$1
sports 1% +$2
economics 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 234 -0.2% -9.7% 97% 1% -10.0%
≤30d 295 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 1% -9.3%
≤90d 295 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 1% -9.3%
all 295 +0.5% -9.1% 98% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.1% 1% -9.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$15 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses288 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)295 / 299
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day26.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 295 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 91¢ 100¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 99¢ 98¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 96¢ 96¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Up 95¢ 94¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will two people dissent the June Fed decision? Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10AM ET Jun 17 $9 +$1 +6%
Solana Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 +$1 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 3m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $11 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $15 32m
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 4h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 5h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 6h
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 7h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 7h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 8h
BNB Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $20 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 8h
Solana Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 94¢ $20 8h
XRP Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $20 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $20 8h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 99¢ $20 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 8h
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $15 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 8h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $20 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.25 · official $56.26 (match) · 597 history records