Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:21:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf79c…94ea other 972 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$889 (-6%) realized −$895 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate39%376W / 577L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$175
7 days+$587
14 days+$374
30 days−$429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$1,132
crypto 28% −$229
sports 19% +$464
world 2% −$59
politics 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +25.0% +13.1% 41% 41% +28.1%
≤30d 228 -30.2% -36.8% 24% 24% -18.7%
≤90d 953 -15.3% -23.4% 39% 36% -16.3%
all 953 -15.3% -23.4% 39% 36% -16.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.4% 36% -16.3%
10% -30.7% 30% -24.4%
15% -37.4% 24% -31.7%
20% -43.6% 21% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$10 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized−$895
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses376 / 577
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)953 / 972
History coverage81d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 953 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michael Olise win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 15¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+88%)
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Ronaldo 42¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $34 +$88 +262%
Barış Alper Yılmaz: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Lawrence Shankland: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams t Jun 17 $31 +$122 +396%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 +$30 +291%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 16 $10 +$22 +216%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 +$50 +89%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$16 -64%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$58 +57%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$107 +105%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$116 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $36 +$79 +222%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $17 +$171 +982%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $106 +$98 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $26 −$18 -68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Exact Score: Bolivia 0 - 2 Algeria? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Bolivia 0 - 1 Algeria? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Nigeria? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $101 +$61 +60%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 11 $25 +$28 +110%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $11 +$9 +82%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Indonesia vs. Mozambique end in a draw? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Iceland end in a draw? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Iceland? Jun 10 $16 +$90 +550%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $6 +$11 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 AND Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals AND Uzbekis BUY 8¢ $82 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Scor BUY 41¢ $31 6h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 8h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams t BUY 20¢ $31 8h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $32 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 27¢ $34 16h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 31¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina BUY 14¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 31h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY 53¢ $61 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY 38¢ $51 34h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY 52¢ $56 41h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 21¢ $97 2d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $56 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $30 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 AND Côte BUY 22¢ $26 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY 26¢ $27 2d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY 33¢ $36 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 5¢ $51 3d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 45¢ $36 3d
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 3d
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 1 Türkiye? BUY Yes 14¢ $16 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.37 · official $191.72 · 2107 history records