Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:37:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf79f…97b2 other 151 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7 (+0%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate13%19W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$265per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$18
politics 34% −$17
sports 9% +$43
crypto 5% −$2
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
world 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 106 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 150 +0.7% -8.9% 13% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 5% -9.5%
10% -17.6% 4% -18.2%
15% -25.6% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.9% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×7.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses19 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)150 / 151
History coverage135d
Avg bet$265
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 150 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 23 $30 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 20 $31 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $245 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $33 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 31 $282 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $531 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $235 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $388 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $200 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 22 $267 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 21 $235 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $222 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $254 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $534 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $273 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 15 $191 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $717 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $22 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $167 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 07 $171 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $154 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $192 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $497 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 02 $283 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $819 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $639 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $227 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $235 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $219 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $647 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $516 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $216 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 26 $248 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $258 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $503 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 26 $262 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $277 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in April? Apr 22 $270 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $777 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 19 $255 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $32 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $30 11h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $43 46h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $43 2d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $31 2d
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $31 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $45 23d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $45 23d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $261 26d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $261 27d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $235 27d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $235 27d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $221 29d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $221 30d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $191 30d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $191 30d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $200 31d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $200 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $267 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $267 32d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $235 33d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $235 33d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $222 33d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $222 35d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $254 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.98 · official $31.98 (match) · 449 history records