Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:50:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7a3…d8ae politics 240 markets active 3h ago coverage 535d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,139 (-0%) realized +$3,789 · open −$4,928
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate53%126W / 112L
Whale WR54%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,133per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$15,311now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 535d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% −$108,705
crypto 18% +$665
other 11% −$2,296
world 7% −$3,420
tech 7% −$3,496
culture 1% −$187
weather 0% −$524
economics 0% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 20% -7.0%
≤90d 5 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 20% -7.0%
all 238 +5.7% -4.4% 53% 24% -31.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.4% 24% -31.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 15% -38.0%
15% -21.9% 12% -44.0%
20% -29.6% 8% -49.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 54% (≥$1,554) neutral
Persistence
early -11% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$483 vs −$1,932 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$15,311
Realized+$3,789
Unrealized−$4,928
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses126 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)238 / 240
History coverage535d
Avg bet$2,133
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 238 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 89¢ $7,000 $12,453 +$5,453 (+78%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 11¢ $7,000 $1,547 −$5,453 (-78%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $786 $1,311 +$525 (+67%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $2,367 +$931 +39%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,262 −$123 -10%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $88 −$15 -17%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1,630 −$240 -15%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $14,180 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 15 $37,777 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Dec 15 $3,452 +$230 +7%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 09 $10,342 +$251 +2%
Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Dec 09 $756 +$14 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Dec 08 $186 +$6 +3%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 08 $84 +$6 +7%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 07 $570 +$7 +1%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 07 $387 +$132 +34%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 06 $5 $0 +1%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 25 $587 +$30 +5%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 25 $528 +$300 +57%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 24 $154 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? Nov 24 $140 +$6 +4%
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations in 2025? Nov 21 $364 +$20 +6%
Trump agrees to sell F-35 to Saudi Arabia by November 30? Nov 19 $400 −$400 -100%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Nov 06 $363 +$20 +6%
Will Jack Ciattarelli win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025 Nov 05 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $463 +$37 +8%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 31 $59 −$51 -86%
Apple Vision Pro 2 released by December 31? Oct 27 $1,736 +$723 +42%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 21 $392 +$8 +2%
OpenAI browser in 2025? Oct 21 $340 +$51 +15%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 21 $166 −$62 -37%
Will Apple release a new version of the Apple TV by December 31? Oct 20 $15 +$1 +4%
Will Apple release AirTag 2 this year? Oct 16 $120 +$11 +9%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 8? Oct 13 $2,862 −$1,712 -60%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 11? Oct 13 $1,065 −$143 -13%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 12? Oct 13 $1,105 −$502 -46%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 10? Oct 13 $305 −$233 -76%
Will Israel first announce ceasefire on October 9? Oct 13 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 13? Oct 13 $600 −$600 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? Oct 13 $2,086 −$2,086 -100%
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? Oct 13 $100 +$60 +60%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $777 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $777 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $1,554 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $1,554 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $777 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $777 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $777 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $777 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $777 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $777 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $777 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 12 $777 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $230 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $230 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $220 3h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $206 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $210 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $23 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $20 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $18 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $62 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2,038 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $25 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $85 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $107 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,094 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $420 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $100 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $13 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,051 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $1,050 4h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $420 5h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $186 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15,310.87 · official $15,310.87 (match) · 2861 history records