Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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F7 0xf7a3…ad9e sports 506 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$4,451 (-10%) realized −$4,451 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate37%211W / 360L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day55.8pace
Fees−$568est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4,070
7 days−$3,756
14 days−$4,078
30 days−$4,910
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$872
weather 23% −$957
other 8% −$519
world 0% −$77
culture 0% −$71
crypto 0% −$54
tech 0% +$1
politics 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 109 -59.9% -63.7% 17% 14% -52.7%
≤30d 287 -27.7% -34.6% 32% 26% -26.9%
≤90d 571 -14.3% -22.4% 37% 31% -20.7%
all 571 -14.3% -22.4% 37% 31% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.4% 31% -20.7%
10% ← realistic here -29.9% 29% -28.3%
15% -36.6% 28% -35.2%
20% -42.8% 26% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$49 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized−$4,451
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses211 / 360
Est. fees paid−$568
Open positions4
Markets (closed)571 / 506
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$91
Trades / day55.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 571 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ 62¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Yes 34¢ 3¢ $48 $5 −$43 (-90%)
Will T1 Esports Academy Win Asia Masters 2026 No 68¢ 52¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Yes 35¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? No 64¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 156 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 27? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 15? Jun 18 $19 −$18 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 13? Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C or higher on April 16? Jun 18 $74 −$66 -90%
LoL: Fnatic vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Fnatic - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Utah Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-01-31? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Tauson vs. Pegula: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Coinbase (COIN) Up or Down on January 27? Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Palantir (PLTR) Up or Down on January 16? Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-01-14? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Open Capfinances Rouen Metropole: Katie Boulter vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Claude 4.7 be released on or prior to April 16, 2026? Jun 18 $14 −$10 -73%
Flyers vs. Penguins Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Team Heretics - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 13? Jun 18 $2 +$5 +281%
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Alex de Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Opendoor (OPEN) Up or Down on January 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Next Gen ATP Finals, Group B: Martin Landaluce vs Nicolai Budkov Kjaer Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Cloud9 - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Game Handicap: FNC (-1.5) vs SK Gaming (+1.5) Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Liquid - Map 3 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 14? Jun 18 $75 −$75 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Basavareddy vs. Engel: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Islanders vs. Oilers Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on January 16? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Wild vs. Sharks Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Menorca: Alex Martinez vs Raul Brancaccio Jun 18 $0 −$55 -60372%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs Team Heretics Academy (BO3) - LES Regular Se Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Team Falcons (BO3) Jun 18 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: OKSavingsBank BRION vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
BMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex Molcan Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2025-12-05? Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
HSBC Championships: Corentin Moutet vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61¢ $101 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 25¢ $12 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 33¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 38¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 37¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? SELL Yes 37¢ $9 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 65¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 65¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 67¢ $10 7h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 19¢ $33 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 21¢ $40 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 51¢ $101 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 58¢ $101 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 19¢ $37 8h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $102 8h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 67¢ $6 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 23¢ $53 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 67¢ $6 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 67¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 67¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? SELL No 67¢ $4 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 62¢ $0 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 64¢ $30 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 64¢ $23 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? SELL No 64¢ $3 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.05 · official $106.99 (match) · 3500 history records