Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:46:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf7a4…f148
weather · 471 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$5,105 +19%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,417 · open +$202
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$695
Realized+$1,417
Unrealized+$202
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses172 / 292
Open positions7
Markets (closed)464 / 471
History coverage53d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day58.2
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 7 History 464 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$291
7 days+$457
14 days+$466
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 14? Yes 38¢ 60¢ $372 $586 +$214 (+57%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 42¢ 41¢ $33 $32 −$1 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 14? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 35¢ 55¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+54%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-18%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-79%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on May 13? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $49 $0 −$49 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 5? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $55 $0 −$55 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 7? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May 13? No 72¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on May 16? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 2? Yes 47¢ 0¢ $187 $0 −$187 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 23? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on May 14? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 8? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 15? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on May 6? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 16? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $187 $0 −$187 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on May 12? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on May 12? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on May 16? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 6? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 14 $24 +$131 +557%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $9 +$22 +239%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $77 +$113 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $35 +$46 +132%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 −$6 -99%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 13 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 12 $137 +$208 +152%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $30 +$70 +231%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 11? Jun 12 $138 +$156 +113%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $23 +$27 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 12 $68 +$59 +86%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju Jun 12 $57 +$43 +74%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $13 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 11 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 11 $94 −$92 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $116 −$114 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on June Jun 11 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $85 −$82 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $53 −$52 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$15 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $123 +$77 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$6 +300%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $137 −$134 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 10? Jun 10 $26 −$25 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $103 −$101 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 10 $43 −$42 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $51 −$49 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 10 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 10 $35 −$34 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 10 $83 −$80 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 10 $90 +$95 +105%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$14 +338%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 10 $107 +$74 +69%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 10 $227 +$34 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 9? Jun 10 $51 +$69 +138%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 10 $37 +$10 +29%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $89 +$261 +293%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 9? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 09 $35 −$35 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 9? Jun 08 $33 −$32 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 8? Jun 08 $14 −$13 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 08 $41 −$40 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 07 $66 +$34 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 6? Jun 07 $6 +$3 +43%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 06 $14 −$13 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$1,620
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 15m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 20¢ $21 21m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 28m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 76¢ $24 43m
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 44m
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 53¢ $55 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 42¢ $43 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $42 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 33¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 32¢ $45 2h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 35¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 29¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 27¢ $51 3h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 27¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 42¢ $9 5h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 11h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 11h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $7 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 48¢ $0 16h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 48¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 48¢ $37 17h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 16¢ $13 24h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $42 25h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY Yes 13¢ $9 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +8.4% -1.9% 40% 40% +7.8%
≤30d 199 +2.6% -7.1% 39% 39% -9.3%
≤90d 464 +1.3% -8.4% 37% 37% -4.5%
all 464 +1.3% -8.4% 37% 37% -4.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover58.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 37% -4.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 33% -13.6%
15% -25.1% 31% -22.0%
20% -32.5% 28% -29.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $694.65 · official $698.94 (match) · 3500 history records