Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7a6…aed7 sports 810 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$831 (+2%) realized +$984 · open −$153
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate77%616W / 187L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$65per market
Trades / day22.0pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$165now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days−$267
14 days−$314
30 days−$1,132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$460
other 27% −$437
weather 21% +$175
crypto 4% +$49
world 0% +$21
tech 0% +$7
politics 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -3.4% -12.6% 77% 49% -12.9%
≤30d 277 -13.2% -21.5% 63% 40% -14.4%
≤90d 796 +0.3% -9.3% 77% 45% -8.7%
all 803 +0.0% -9.5% 77% 45% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover22.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 45% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -18.2% 25% -17.5%
15% -26.1% 13% -25.5%
20% -33.3% 5% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$31 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$165
Realized+$984
Unrealized−$153
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses616 / 187
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions7
Markets (closed)803 / 810
History coverage96d
Avg bet$65
Trades / day22.0
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 803 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 Under 86¢ 100¢ $59 $69 +$10 (+16%)
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $39 $41 +$2 (+6%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 80¢ 100¢ $30 $37 +$7 (+25%)
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 58¢ 100¢ $7 $12 +$5 (+73%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Under 79¢ 6¢ $83 $6 −$77 (-93%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Under 86¢ 0¢ $66 $0 −$66 (-100%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 61¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $100 +$13 +13%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $156 +$24 +16%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $201 +$31 +15%
Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $100 +$32 +32%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $159 +$37 +23%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$17 +34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$2 +6%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $101 +$32 +32%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 7.5 Jun 17 $74 +$10 +13%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $226 −$125 -56%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $44 −$44 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 −$15 -49%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$50 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $40 +$3 +7%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $126 +$22 +18%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $30 $0 -1%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $26 +$4 +16%
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +130%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$1 +14%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $14 +$2 +14%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $53 +$4 +8%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $220 +$38 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $162 +$14 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $26 +$5 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $50 +$5 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $52 +$11 +21%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $79 +$11 +14%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $221 +$32 +14%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $182 −$47 -26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $44 +$3 +6%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $38 −$26 -68%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $72 +$19 +26%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $163 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: France 3 - 2 Senegal? Jun 16 $70 +$3 +4%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $194 +$23 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $36 +$3 +10%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $73 +$9 +12%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $25 +$5 +20%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $179 +$13 +8%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $223 +$21 +9%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $314 +$34 +11%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $29 $0 -0%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $46 −$22 -49%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $43 −$43 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $45 +$7 +16%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$3 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $35 +$2 +6%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $95 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 68¢ $15 10m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $30 12m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Under 94¢ $51 20m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $2 38m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $21 38m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 90¢ $29 38m
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $71 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 80¢ $30 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 1.5 BUY Under 86¢ $59 1h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $53 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 90¢ $15 16h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $118 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 71¢ $35 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $78 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 95¢ $35 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $1 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $14 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $9 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $3 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 55¢ $9 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 77¢ $101 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 92¢ $100 17h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $30 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 88¢ $63 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $1 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $4 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $5 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $3 18h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 88¢ $100 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.32 · official $240.65 · 2633 history records