Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:28:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7a8…db62 other 153 markets active 4h ago coverage 204d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$271 (-3%) realized −$233 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%45W / 107L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$27
30 days−$736
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$483
sports 29% +$335
crypto 14% −$245
world 2% −$4
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -4.6% -13.7% 0% 0% -13.8%
≤30d 83 -11.9% -20.3% 17% 10% -24.4%
≤90d 141 -5.2% -14.3% 27% 22% -15.3%
all 152 -3.9% -13.0% 30% 24% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 24% -13.5%
10% -21.4% 22% -21.8%
15% -29.0% 18% -29.4%
20% -35.9% 16% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$19 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

204d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$233
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses45 / 107
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions1
Markets (closed)152 / 153
History coverage204d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 152 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? No 36¢ 30¢ $250 $212 −$38 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on Jun 16 $70 −$2 -3%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.25B and $1.5B at market c Jun 15 $16 $0 -1%
GMGN FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 14 $31 −$3 -10%
Will Senegal (15) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 14 $3 $0 -2%
Will IR Iran (20) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands (8) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Will Croatia (11) be the highest-ranked team eliminated in the 2026 FI Jun 14 $2 $0 -3%
Tread FDV above $400M one day after launch Jun 14 $38 $0 -0%
Will Julián Alvarez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $18 −$1 -4%
Will Nicolás Otamendi be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $5 $0 -2%
Will Lisandro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $17 $0 -2%
Will Lautaro Martínez be in Argentina's Starting 11? Jun 13 $18 −$3 -17%
Will Egypt go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -3%
Will Ecuador go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Jun 12 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Rafael Leão be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 12 $30 $0 -1%
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $28 −$1 -4%
Tabi FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 12 $29 −$2 -8%
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Phantom launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 08 $36 −$1 -3%
Tabi FDV above $250M one day after launch? Jun 07 $33 −$3 -9%
Will Tabi launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -13%
Will BULK launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 06 $43 −$2 -4%
Will MGM Resorts be acquired before 2027? Jun 04 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $37 −$2 -5%
Will UBS or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead under Jun 04 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.75B and $2.0B at market c Jun 04 $62 +$1 +2%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close Jun 04 $37 −$1 -3%
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $900M and $1.1B at market close Jun 04 $11 −$1 -13%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be at least $25B at market close on IPO d Jun 04 $91 −$3 -3%
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market c Jun 04 $184 −$8 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Deutsche Bank or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the Jun 03 $4 −$1 -28%
Will Bank of America or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as th Jun 03 $7 −$1 -18%
Will Propr launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 02 $32 −$4 -14%
Will Javokhir Sindarov win the 2026 World Chess Championship? Jun 01 $218 −$4 -2%
Will City Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $150 +$7 +4%
Will Titan launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 31 $114 −$8 -7%
Will Shubman Gill win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap? May 31 $91 +$13 +14%
Will Sunshine Silver's market cap be at least $3B at market close on I May 31 $2 $0 -25%
Will Innio's market cap be between $20B and $23B at market close on IP May 31 $26 −$2 -6%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $38 +$29 +75%
Will Tempo launch a token by December 31, 2027? May 29 $149 −$76 -51%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $780b and $800b on June 30? May 28 $1 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $660b and $680b on June 30? May 28 $3 $0 -4%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $740b and $760b on June 30? May 28 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Megyn Kelly by June 30, 2026? May 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Keir Starmer by June 30, 2026? May 28 $8 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Candace Owens by June 30, 2026? May 28 $6 $0 -1%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $64 −$64 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 31¢ $3 3h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 28¢ $19 22h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 31¢ $4 26h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 32¢ $16 26h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 33¢ $16 26h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 33¢ $14 26h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 34¢ $14 26h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 34¢ $9 26h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 33¢ $9 26h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 39¢ $31 26h
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 39¢ $5 2d
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 39¢ $23 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on SELL No 34¢ $68 2d
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 39¢ $8 2d
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? SELL No 39¢ $3 2d
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2027? BUY No 38¢ $38 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $2 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $2 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $14 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $2 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $5 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $7 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $3 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $3 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $2 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $2 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 34¢ $2 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 30¢ $5 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 30¢ $2 2d
Will Deep Fission's market cap be less than $1.25B at market close on BUY No 36¢ $7 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.61 · official $211.61 (match) · 720 history records