Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7ac…427f sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$764 (-24%) realized −$703 · open −$61
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%26W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$33est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$247
7 days−$288
14 days−$288
30 days−$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$360
other 29% +$63
world 13% −$95
crypto 8% −$62
finance 2% +$47
politics 2% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 53 -9.2% -17.8% 32% 32% -19.9%
≤30d 53 -9.2% -17.8% 32% 32% -19.9%
≤90d 56 -11.0% -19.5% 32% 32% -22.6%
all 64 -6.2% -15.2% 41% 39% -21.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 39% -21.1%
10% -23.3% 33% -28.7%
15% -30.7% 23% -35.6%
20% -37.5% 20% -41.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$39 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$703
Unrealized−$61
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses26 / 38
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)64 / 68
History coverage96d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 28¢ 22¢ $56 $43 −$12 (-22%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+63%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 43¢ 36¢ $9 $7 −$1 (-15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 69¢ 78¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+87%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 17¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-99%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 19¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 +$713 +792%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $42 +$58 +139%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $39 +$9 +24%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 17 $47 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 17 $36 +$11 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 17 $43 +$36 +85%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $457 −$320 -70%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $354 −$260 -74%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$45 +44%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $11 +$3 +25%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $28 +$12 +42%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 −$5 -10%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $105 −$82 -78%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $53 −$43 -81%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $20 +$20 +100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $25 −$1 -4%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $12 +$8 +67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +144%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $9 −$2 -26%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $9 +$17 +188%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $83 −$13 -16%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $20 −$13 -65%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $90 −$62 -69%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 14 $168 −$168 -100%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Jun 14 $19 −$4 -23%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -22%
Spread: New York Yankees (-2.5) Jun 14 $15 −$4 -30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $124 +$28 +22%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $18 −$3 -19%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$5 -48%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$45 +214%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 35¢ $103 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 9¢ $90 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $25 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 43¢ $39 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 74¢ $47 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $42 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 34¢ $47 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL Yes 32¢ $32 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $325 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $93 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 64¢ $105 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 64¢ $9 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 64¢ $10 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 64¢ $42 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $354 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $132 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 50¢ $147 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $102 2d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $12 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $14 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 52¢ $14 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? BUY Yes 54¢ $12 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $8 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 14¢ $8 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.87 · official $67.87 (match) · 307 history records