Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:26:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7b0…9178 sports 353 markets active 2h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$547 (-3%) realized −$549 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%163W / 189L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$93est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$120now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$350
7 days−$545
14 days−$1,563
30 days−$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$954
other 15% +$383
crypto 1% −$58
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-22.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -45.0% -50.2% 30% 26% -70.2%
≤30d 77 -5.1% -14.1% 49% 45% -13.3%
≤90d 234 -32.4% -38.8% 37% 35% -15.0%
all 352 -14.6% -22.7% 46% 41% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.7% 41% -12.8%
10% -30.1% 35% -21.1%
15% -36.8% 33% -28.7%
20% -43.0% 30% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$27 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$120
Realized−$549
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses163 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$93
Open positions1
Markets (closed)352 / 353
History coverage137d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners Under 61¢ 62¢ $118 $120 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game 5: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 28 $107 −$36 -34%
Game 4: Any Player Penta Kill? Jun 28 $84 −$28 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $45 −$45 -100%
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 28 $74 −$74 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 28 $146 −$146 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 $0 +9%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands Jun 27 $13 +$7 +53%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 25 $232 −$232 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $49 +$34 +70%
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens Jun 22 $6 +$4 +73%
Set Handicap: Zhang (-1.5) vs Searle (+1.5) Jun 22 $2 +$1 +50%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 21 $3 +$3 +101%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 21 $3 $0 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $11 +$8 +73%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Libema Open: Nikola Bartunkova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 20 $80 −$80 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 20 $155 −$155 -100%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 20 $85 −$46 -54%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 20 $369 −$369 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 20 $492 −$492 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$7 +109%
Set Handicap: Hanfmann (-1.5) vs Zverev (+1.5) Jun 18 $15 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $688 +$74 +11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $390 +$72 +18%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $370 +$73 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $25 +$102 +414%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $103 +$203 +197%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +72%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $263 +$288 +109%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $115 +$95 +83%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 11 $44 +$50 +114%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 11 $374 +$69 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 61¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 23h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs Ireland BUY West Indies 50¢ $10 27h
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 87¢ $146 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 23¢ $3 30h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Pakistan vs Netherlands BUY Pakistan 50¢ $10 31h
Game 5: Any Player Penta Kill? BUY No 75¢ $107 31h
Game 4: Any Player Penta Kill? BUY No 75¢ $84 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down $1 34h
Türkiye vs. United States: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 47¢ $74 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $10 2d
Paraguay vs. Australia: Australia 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 29¢ $45 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $7 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $49 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 5d
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $8 5d
Set Handicap: Zhang (-1.5) vs Searle (+1.5) BUY Searle 66¢ $2 6d
Bad Homburg Open: Alexandra Eala vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 57¢ $6 6d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists SELL Yes 41¢ $3 7d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $3 7d
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 43¢ $3 7d
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Duty L BUY Miami Heretics 78¢ $232 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down $1 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 8d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 76¢ $9 8d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 2.5 Corners BUY Under 38¢ $155 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $119.93 · official $119.93 (match) · 879 history records