Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf7b3…eeb2 world 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 73d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$5,899 (+5%) realized +$3,166 · open +$2,733
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate88%98W / 13L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$980per market
Trades / day46.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$20,375now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 74d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% +$7,507
finance 24% +$3,341
other 15% +$4,160
politics 3% +$612
economics 1% +$2,412
tech 0% +$329
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+20.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.4% -1.0% 80% 50% +5.1%
≤30d 48 +9.4% -1.0% 90% 40% +2.3%
≤90d 111 +33.6% +20.8% 88% 41% +5.4%
all 111 +33.6% +20.8% 88% 41% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.8% 41% +5.4%
10% +9.3% 24% -4.6%
15% ← realistic here -1.3% 15% -13.9%
20% -11.0% 11% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +34% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$1,160) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +60% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
17.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$186 vs −$220 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×6.92 per $1 lost it wins $6.92
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$20,375
Realized+$3,166
Unrealized+$2,733
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses98 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions15
Markets (closed)111 / 126
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$980
Trades / day46.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 94¢ $2,107 $3,188 +$1,081 (+51%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 54¢ 58¢ $2,393 $2,574 +$181 (+8%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 69¢ 70¢ $2,264 $2,288 +$24 (+1%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Yes 80¢ 88¢ $2,027 $2,242 +$216 (+11%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 46¢ 62¢ $1,550 $2,098 +$548 (+35%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,719 $1,888 +$169 (+10%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 86¢ 86¢ $1,372 $1,379 +$7 (+1%)
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? No 90¢ 92¢ $998 $1,024 +$26 (+3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 74¢ 85¢ $868 $997 +$129 (+15%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 35¢ 44¢ $704 $897 +$193 (+27%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by July 31? No 88¢ 94¢ $656 $696 +$39 (+6%)
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 84¢ $343 $390 +$46 (+14%)
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 79¢ 86¢ $315 $346 +$31 (+10%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 72¢ 84¢ $287 $334 +$47 (+16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $38 $33 −$5 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 26 $1,016 −$14 -1%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Jun 26 $5,549 +$1,584 +28%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 25 $524 +$216 +41%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $1,058 +$42 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 22 $1,888 +$339 +18%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $617 −$276 -45%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $191 +$9 +5%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $171 +$29 +17%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 20 $542 +$116 +21%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Jun 20 $1,663 +$95 +6%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Jun 18 $768 +$31 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,865 +$168 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 17 $459 +$45 +10%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 17 $2,486 +$328 +13%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 17 $1,096 +$84 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $1,236 −$196 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $1,511 +$446 +30%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $2,212 +$491 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 16 $767 +$362 +47%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31? Jun 15 $64 +$4 +6%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 15 $2,491 +$218 +9%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 15 $1,504 +$56 +4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 14 $335 +$7 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 14 $910 +$63 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $835 +$45 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1,366 −$121 -9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 12? Jun 13 $568 +$63 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 13 $3,454 +$484 +14%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 13 $1,160 +$361 +31%
Israel closes its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $640 +$66 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 12 $992 +$51 +5%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $1,136 +$65 +6%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4,161 +$1,076 +26%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 10 $2,162 +$234 +11%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 10 $2,039 +$196 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $190 +$10 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $1,024 +$56 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 06 $386 +$8 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,122 +$96 +8%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1,710 +$45 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 30 $188 +$12 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $1,318 +$54 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 28 $1,033 +$309 +30%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 28 $28 −$13 -46%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $90 by end of June? May 27 $175 +$25 +14%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 27 $261 +$31 +12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 27 $757 +$118 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 27 $81 +$20 +24%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $399 +$68 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $79 +$21 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 46m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $1 46m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 47m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 63¢ $63 50m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 63¢ $0 51m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 64¢ $40 51m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 64¢ $18 54m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 64¢ $6 55m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $112 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $370 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $13 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 2h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 63¢ $116 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $3 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 3h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 44¢ $132 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 54¢ $111 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 64¢ $128 3h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 64¢ $128 3h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? BUY Yes 47¢ $9 3h
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL No 84¢ $75 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $15 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $95 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $14 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $4 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 95¢ $62 4h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $197 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,375.26 · official $20,375.26 (match) · 3500 history records