Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:18:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7b5…64a7 world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate37%16W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 35% −$2
other 18% +$1
politics 17% −$1
sports 12% +$1
crypto 6% $0
culture 5% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 12 -0.5% -10.0% 33% 0% -10.1%
all 43 -0.6% -10.1% 37% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses16 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)43 / 43
History coverage284d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 43 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $40 −$4 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $22 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $18 −$1 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $24 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $9 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $35 +$2 +7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% in 2025? Dec 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 15 $33 +$1 +4%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 10 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 02 $33 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Oct 02 $33 +$1 +2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 01 $1 $0 -19%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $25 +$1 +3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 29 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in September? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $25 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $52 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 14 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 13 $2 $0 -9%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Sep 13 $2 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 10 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 10 $32 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 09 $33 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $37 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 11h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 13h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $33 20h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $23 35h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 38h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 47¢ $36 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $40 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $13 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $9 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $22 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $9 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $8 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $11 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $8 24d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $17 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $7 25d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $24 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 26d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $37 26d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $37 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $23 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 87¢ $15 26d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 82¢ $1 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records