Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:26:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf7bc…78ec crypto 40 markets active 2h ago coverage 608d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$29 (+0%) realized +$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate90%35W / 4L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% +$9
other 25% −$1
crypto 8% +$7
economics 0% +$9
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 8 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 19 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 39 +5.9% -4.2% 90% 13% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.2% 13% -9.2%
10% -13.3% 13% -17.9%
15% -21.7% 13% -25.9%
20% -29.4% 8% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.83 per $1 lost it wins $3.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

608d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses35 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)39 / 40
History coverage608d
Avg bet$233
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? Jun 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? Jun 05 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? Jun 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 22 $27 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? May 15 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? May 13 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? May 08 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? Apr 30 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16? Apr 20 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? Apr 16 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? Apr 15 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 27? Apr 07 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? Mar 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 28? Mar 18 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 12? Feb 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? Feb 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? Feb 09 $13 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $26 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $26 $0 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? Feb 04 $26 $0 +0%
Pistons vs. Magic Jan 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 25 $5,159 $0 +0%
Will the Commanders win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 02 $936 $0 -0%
Will the Chargers win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 02 $1,403 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 12 $13 +$7 +58%
Unemployment rate over 4.1% in October? Nov 12 $11 +$9 +82%
Hawks vs. Wizards Nov 01 $5 +$10 +186%
Will Gen.G win LoL Worlds 2024? Oct 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Leicester win on 2024-10-25? Oct 28 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin above $69,000 on October 25? Oct 28 $10 +$5 +49%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 22 $526 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 22 $507 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $27 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $27 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $27 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $27 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $27 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $27 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $27 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $27 31d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 99¢ $27 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $27 40d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $27 45d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 20? BUY No 100¢ $27 63d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on April 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $26 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 15? BUY No 100¢ $26 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $26 74d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $26 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 27? BUY No 100¢ $26 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $26 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 18? BUY No 100¢ $27 96d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 28? BUY No 100¢ $33 116d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 132d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 7? BUY No 98¢ $13 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $26 137d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4? BUY No 99¢ $26 138d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $26 143d
Pistons vs. Magic BUY Pistons 45¢ $4 512d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 99¢ $13 522d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26.91 · official $26.91 (match) · 130 history records