Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:39:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
F7 0xf7bd…68c4 other 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,382 (-1%) realized −$1,382 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate21%32W / 122L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,102per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$581now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$17
14 days−$36
30 days+$121
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$221
politics 36% −$51
sports 10% −$1,134
economics 4% −$5
culture 2% −$5
crypto 1% +$2
world 1% +$5
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +9.1% -1.3% 13% 10% -9.3%
≤90d 82 +0.9% -8.7% 6% 4% -10.6%
all 154 +3.9% -6.0% 21% 13% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 13% -10.3%
10% -15.0% 13% -18.9%
15% -23.2% 10% -26.7%
20% -30.7% 7% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,318) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$19 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$581
Realized−$1,382
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses32 / 122
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions2
Markets (closed)154 / 156
History coverage159d
Avg bet$1,102
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $371 $371 +$0 (+0%)
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $210 $210 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $2,016 −$3 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $1,368 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $1,536 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $2,196 −$3 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 17 $940 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $2,959 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $2,535 −$3 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,892 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5,353 −$6 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,320 −$5 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,036 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $665 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $2,168 −$3 -0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 06 $78 +$55 +70%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $4,607 −$5 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $74 +$72 +97%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,379 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,063 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,080 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $503 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $1,584 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $715 −$1 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $1,928 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $2,636 −$4 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,309 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $3,167 −$3 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 May 25 $54 +$63 +119%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 22 $1,002 −$2 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $960 −$2 -0%
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals May 22 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $849 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 19 $599 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,206 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $1,353 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,073 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $1,193 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,386 −$2 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $1,013 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 03 $2,648 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,258 −$2 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $1,096 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,058 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $210 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $642 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $643 3h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $499 43h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $500 44h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $523 4d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $524 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $997 4d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $998 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $939 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $940 5d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $693 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $694 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $758 6d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $759 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $885 7d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $886 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $831 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $832 8d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $756 9d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $757 9d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $371 9d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $965 12d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $966 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $858 12d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $859 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,004 13d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,006 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $707 13d
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $708 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $580.70 · official $580.70 (match) · 479 history records