Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F7 0xf7c1…92eb crypto 864 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d only
✗ bot/MM pace (259 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$275 (+2%) realized +$273 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate90%776W / 84L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day259.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$118
14 days+$183
30 days+$183
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$185
weather 1% $0
sports 0% −$2
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (259 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 609 -0.6% -10.1% 89% 12% -8.0%
≤30d 860 -0.6% -10.1% 90% 9% -8.1%
≤90d 860 -0.6% -10.1% 90% 9% -8.1%
all 860 -0.6% -10.1% 90% 9% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover259.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 9% -8.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 4% -16.9%
15% -26.5% 1% -24.9%
20% -33.7% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$273
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses776 / 84
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)860 / 864
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$13
Trades / day259.4
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 860 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? No 73¢ 100¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+37%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 91¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $11 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$2 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 14 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $33 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $8 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$3 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $24 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $45 +$20 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $48 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 14 $11 −$5 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $4 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 15? BUY No 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.69 · official $22.69 (match) · 3500 history records