Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:13:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf7c2…9b8d sports 1184 markets active 1h ago coverage 120d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 119d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$82,519 (+6%) realized +$82,985 · open −$466
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%539W / 673L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$1,113per market
Trades / day26.2pace
Fees−$13,777est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$4,497now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19,791
7 days+$6,837
14 days+$26,096
30 days+$32,627
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$118,453
other 4% −$13,051
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 107 -40.7% -46.3% 29% 26% +0.2%
≤30d 269 -11.8% -20.2% 40% 38% +1.5%
≤90d 910 -4.3% -13.4% 44% 43% -3.0%
all 1212 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 44% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.2 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.8% 44% -3.6%
10% -17.5% 43% -12.9%
15% ← realistic here -25.5% 41% -21.3%
20% -32.8% 37% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$1,458) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,271 vs −$890 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$4,497
Realized+$82,985
Unrealized−$466
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses539 / 673
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$13,777
Open positions6
Markets (closed)1212 / 1184
History coverage120d ⚠
Avg bet$1,113
Trades / day26.2
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 1212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner FURIA 54¢ 56¢ $2,037 $2,146 +$109 (+5%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 65¢ 68¢ $1,683 $1,782 +$98 (+6%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) Team Falcons 26¢ 28¢ $414 $438 +$24 (+6%)
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Team Falcons 58¢ 64¢ $116 $129 +$13 (+11%)
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Grind Back 30¢ 0¢ $711 $1 −$710 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 494 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Coalesce vs Twisted Saints Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $92 −$92 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $345 −$345 -100%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs 1win (BO3) - PGL Wallachia: Eastern Europe Cl Jun 20 $58 −$58 -100%
Valorant: UNIWAY vs Bonk - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $192 −$192 -100%
LoL: HMBLE vs EKO Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $56 −$56 -100%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO1) - Prime League 1st D Jun 20 $88 −$88 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $999 −$999 -100%
Men's Semifinals - USA vs. Slovakia Jun 20 $222 −$222 -100%
Valorant: ALT F4 vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South Group Stage Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: Bad Luck vs Game Hunters - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $146 −$146 -100%
LoL: 4 SWINES & A BUM vs Ruddy Esports (BO1) - NLC Regular Season Jun 20 $222 −$222 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs Dplus KIA (+2.5) Jun 20 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming vs Team Secret Whales - Game 4 Winn Jun 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 20 $60 −$60 -100%
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Virginia Cavaliers Jun 20 $285 −$285 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $999 −$999 -100%
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs SU Esports (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $599 −$599 -100%
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs VP.Prodigy - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $444 −$444 -100%
Colorado State Rams vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels: O/U 147.5 Jun 20 $1,215 −$1,215 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $687 −$687 -100%
AHL: Cleveland Monsters vs. Grand Rapids Griffins Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Vitality (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 20 $671 −$671 -100%
LoL: Bushido Wildcats vs S2G Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $333 −$333 -100%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - VCT China Kickoff Play Jun 20 $233 −$233 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,299 −$1,299 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $1,111 −$1,111 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5) Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs NRG - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $259 −$259 -100%
Counter-Strike: BC.Game Esports vs NIP (BO3) - IEM Krakow Play-In Jun 20 $170 −$170 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Group A Jun 20 $355 −$355 -100%
LoL: SPAXFAMILY vs EXILE esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $111 −$111 -100%
LoL: SPAXFAMILY vs Priority - Game 3 Winner Jun 20 $239 −$239 -100%
LoL: Dark Passage vs SU Esports (BO3) - TCL Playoffs Jun 20 $109 −$109 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Heroic - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $333 −$333 -100%
Counter-Strike: VP.Prodigy vs ENJOY - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $110 −$110 -100%
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Jun 20 $333 −$333 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs 33 (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #13 Group St Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 20 $555 −$555 -100%
Dota 2: Team Public vs Yellow Submarine - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
William & Mary Tribe vs. Northeastern Huskies Jun 20 $222 −$222 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 29.5 in Game 3? Jun 20 $93 −$93 -100%
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack: O/U 158.5 Jun 20 $555 −$555 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $755 −$755 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs REKONIX (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $222 −$222 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $121 −$121 -100%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 3? Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Jun 20 $555 −$555 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $1 33m
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $41 1h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $8 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 28¢ $17 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 28¢ $468 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $4 2h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 65¢ $1,473 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $5 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY Grind Back 36¢ $241 2h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $7 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 37¢ $181 3h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $167 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $7 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $9 3h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $2 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $11 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $7 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $7 4h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 54¢ $1,294 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 53¢ $772 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $117 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $5 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $5 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $99 5h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 63¢ $7 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $55 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $14 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $77 5h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 26¢ $4 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,496.73 · official $4,497.11 (match) · 3500 history records