Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:09:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7c2…886e crypto 447 markets active 6h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-3%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate54%242W / 205L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day18.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days−$2
14 days−$50
30 days−$342
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$265
other 5% +$8
sports 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +2.2% -7.5% 59% 41% -10.2%
≤30d 266 -4.1% -13.2% 57% 39% -25.3%
≤90d 447 -3.3% -12.5% 54% 38% -19.2%
all 447 -3.3% -12.5% 54% 38% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 38% -19.2%
10% -20.9% 28% -26.9%
15% -28.5% 21% -34.0%
20% -35.5% 16% -40.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses242 / 205
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)447 / 447
History coverage60d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day18.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 447 Trades
no open positions (167 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$3 -47%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $24 −$24 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $54 +$26 +49%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +51%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$5 +93%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -32%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$10 +319%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +18%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$15 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -60%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$7 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $8 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$2 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $3 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 7h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $20 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $32 13h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 14h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 16h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $13 18h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $21 31h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 34h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 43h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $13 43h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 44h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 38¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1248 history records