Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T23:50:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7c4…5919 sports 1114 markets active 1h ago coverage 212d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 212d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$23,549 (-32%) realized −$23,549 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate6%73W / 1206L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day16.4pace
Fees−$608est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,474
7 days−$9,569
14 days−$9,503
30 days−$8,547
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$13,103
other 2% +$1,512
crypto 0% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-52.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 213 -88.2% -89.3% 1% 1% -86.0%
≤90d 530 -63.1% -66.6% 3% 3% -52.1%
all 1279 -46.9% -52.0% 6% 6% -42.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.0% 6% -42.5%
10% -56.6% 6% -48.0%
15% -60.8% 6% -53.0%
20% -64.6% 6% -57.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$760 vs −$63 · ×11.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

212d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$23,549
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses73 / 1206
Est. fees paid−$608
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1279 / 1114
History coverage212d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day16.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1279 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brewers vs. Reds Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Padres vs. Cubs Jun 27 $58 −$58 -100%
UFC 322: Kopylov vs. Rodrigues (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 27 $64 −$64 -100%
Rays vs. Orioles Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Astros vs. Red Sox Jun 27 $118 −$118 -100%
Canucks vs. Oilers Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Rockets vs. Grizzlies Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Mariners vs. Phillies Jun 27 $47 −$47 -100%
Nets vs. Knicks Jun 27 $80 −$80 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Movistar KOI (BO1) Jun 27 $34 −$34 -100%
Astros vs. Blue Jays Jun 27 $40 −$40 -100%
Bengals vs. Eagles Jun 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Oilers vs. Islanders Jun 27 $39 −$39 -100%
Cardinals vs. Padres Jun 27 $137 −$137 -100%
Cubs vs. Rockies Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Cowboys vs. Raiders Jun 27 $56 −$56 -100%
Astros vs. Rangers Jun 27 $48 −$48 -100%
Canucks vs. Stars Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Jazz Jun 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Giants vs. Brewers Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Yankees vs. Twins Jun 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Cubs vs. Blue Jays Jun 27 $44 −$44 -100%
Lakers vs. Suns Jun 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Royals vs. Angels Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Athletics vs. Guardians Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Blue Jays vs. Pirates Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will São Paulo FC win on 2025-11-20? Jun 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Mariners vs. Tigers Jun 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Florida vs. LSU Jun 27 $10 −$10 -100%
White Sox vs. Mariners Jun 27 $61 −$61 -100%
Angels vs. Athletics Jun 27 $137 −$137 -100%
Clippers vs. Cavaliers Jun 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Rays vs. Mariners Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Phillies vs. Yankees Jun 27 $46 −$46 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Canucks Jun 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Orioles vs. Astros Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
White Sox vs. Yankees Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Canucks vs. Wild Jun 27 $28 −$28 -100%
Falcons vs. Patriots Jun 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Nationals vs. Giants Jun 27 $23 −$23 -100%
Athletics vs. Rangers Jun 27 $17 −$17 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Blues Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Astros vs. Braves Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Yankees vs. Braves Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Jazz Jun 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Texas vs. Florida Gators Jun 27 $85 −$85 -100%
Pirates vs. Rockies Jun 27 $140 −$140 -100%
Phillies vs. Reds Jun 27 $37 −$37 -100%
Appalachian State vs. James Madison Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $15 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays $40 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes $20 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $10 18h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants $19 19h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $1 19h
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels $9 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $12 20h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes $15 20h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays $42 22h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees $16 23h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees $32 23h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds $41 2d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets $22 5d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets $7 5d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets $26 5d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers $16 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers $18 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox $9 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers $26 6d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers $25 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics $9 6d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics BUY Athletics $21 6d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners $24 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners $1 7d
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees $9 8d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies $26 8d
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies $5 8d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records