Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:33:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

F7 0xf7c4…affa other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$1,830 (+19%) realized +$2,351 · open −$521

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip

Net edge+7%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$2,427per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$44est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$4,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+22.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+35.9%	+22.9%	100%	100%	+22.9%
≤30d	1	+35.9%	+22.9%	100%	100%	+22.9%
≤90d	1	+35.9%	+22.9%	100%	100%	+22.9%
all	1	+35.9%	+22.9%	100%	100%	+22.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~12%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	+22.9%	100%	+22.9%
10% ← realistic here	+11.2%	100%	+11.2%
15%	+0.4%	100%	+0.4%
20%	-9.4%	0%	-9.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +36% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +36% · $-wt +36% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$1,790 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$4,132

Realized+$2,351

Unrealized−$521

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$44

Open positions3

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$2,427

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	58¢	78¢	$1,753	$2,373	+$620 (+35%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	Over	47¢	24¢	$2,000	$1,043	−$957 (-48%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	Over	54¢	43¢	$900	$717	−$183 (-20%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$4,988	+$1,790	+36%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$1,013	1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: Spain O/U 1.5	BUY Over	54¢	$912	1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$762	1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	47¢	$2,032	2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	73¢	$4,988	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,131.81 · official $4,131.81 (match) · 6 history records