Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:53:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7c6…45e4 crypto 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$85 (+1%) realized +$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate76%22W / 7L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$295per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$40
14 days+$46
30 days+$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% +$32
politics 16% +$10
finance 4% +$4
world 3% −$2
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -1.2% -10.6% 94% 11% -8.9%
≤30d 29 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 17% -9.0%
≤90d 29 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 17% -9.0%
all 29 -4.5% -13.6% 76% 17% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 17% -9.0%
10% -21.9% 10% -17.7%
15% -29.4% 10% -25.7%
20% -36.4% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$64 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses22 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage14d
Avg bet$295
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 23 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $541 +$7 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 23 $532 +$17 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 23 $511 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $483 +$41 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 23 $300 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 23 $461 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $432 +$25 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 23 $393 +$44 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $362 +$22 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $361 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 23 $351 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $244 +$16 +7%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 23 $332 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 21 $300 +$3 +1%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 21 $282 +$23 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $296 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 12 $321 −$18 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $21 +$21 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $901 −$196 -22%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $400 +$199 +50%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $96 +$8 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $106 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 181 history records