Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7ca…352d sports 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$317 (-39%) realized −$320 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$331
other 5% +$43
crypto 4% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-39.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -33.1% -39.5% 33% 33% -47.3%
≤30d 18 -33.1% -39.5% 33% 33% -47.3%
≤90d 18 -33.1% -39.5% 33% 33% -47.3%
all 18 -33.1% -39.5% 33% 33% -47.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.5% 33% -47.3%
10% -45.3% 33% -52.3%
15% -50.6% 28% -56.9%
20% -55.4% 28% -61.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -62% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$46 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$320
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 39¢ 44¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $29 −$29 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 18 $82 −$81 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $39 +$43 +109%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $29 +$10 +34%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner Jun 16 $30 −$29 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $142 −$140 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $55 +$86 +156%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $32 +$23 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $75 −$72 -95%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $30 +$45 +152%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $53 −$52 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $30 +$23 +78%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $29 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner BUY KOLESIE 56¢ $29 12h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 62¢ $82 21h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $39 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL FURIA 100¢ $39 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $29 24h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves - Map 1 Winner BUY 100 Thieves 54¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY HyperSpirit 36¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK - Map 1 Winner BUY HOTU 44¢ $30 3d
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 43¢ $30 3d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 70¢ $142 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 99¢ $142 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $55 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 99¢ $56 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $32 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up $27 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports $3 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 62¢ $75 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $75 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $30 4d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 50¢ $30 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $53 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $53 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $30 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.22 · official $32.22 (match) · 27 history records