Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7ca…cd59 other 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,194 (+1%) realized +$1,053 · open +$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate81%54W / 13L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,066per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$23,027now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$42
14 days+$101
30 days−$1,505
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 40% −$1,712
other 23% +$290
economics 19% +$480
tech 7% +$141
world 5% −$5
politics 4% +$318
sports 0% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 19 -18.9% -26.6% 68% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 53 -7.9% -16.7% 75% 4% -10.5%
all 67 -6.0% -15.0% 81% 3% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 3% -10.0%
10% -23.1% 1% -18.6%
15% -30.5% 1% -26.5%
20% -37.3% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,879) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$168 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$23,027
Realized+$1,053
Unrealized+$141
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses54 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)67 / 75
History coverage251d
Avg bet$3,066
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $4,860 $4,828 −$32 (-1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $4,507 $4,576 +$68 (+2%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,557 $4,558 +$1 (+0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $4,233 $4,233 +$0 (+0%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,994 $2,996 +$2 (+0%)
New pandemic in 2026? No 86¢ 92¢ $1,729 $1,830 +$101 (+6%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $4 $6 +$3 (+71%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 25 $993 +$5 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1,000 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $4,512 +$9 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 20 $971 +$28 +3%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $5,932 +$47 +1%
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $2,400 +$51 +2%
Fed Rate Hike by June 2026 Meeting? Jun 17 $312 +$2 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 16 $1,801 −$32 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump Leave China on May 15? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $992 +$8 +1%
Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027? Jun 12 $2,997 +$3 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 12 $4,995 +$5 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of June? Jun 07 $7,671 −$1,695 -22%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 07 $2,286 +$4 +0%
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30? Jun 07 $1,673 +$32 +2%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 01 $4,938 +$47 +1%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 27 $2,982 +$6 +0%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? May 21 $1,794 +$61 +3%
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $75 on the final trading day of June 2 May 19 $18 −$1 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 18 $986 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? May 17 $1,530 +$10 +1%
Will Finland come in last place at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1,998 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 15 $3,440 +$9 +0%
Will Australia advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $997 +$3 +0%
Will Denmark advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final? May 15 $1,996 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2026? May 13 $499 +$1 +0%
Will Finland advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? May 13 $4,990 +$10 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $998 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 11 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 11 $963 +$15 +2%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 10 $4,645 +$5 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 09 $999 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 09 $998 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 07 $2,879 +$254 +9%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 05 $8,433 +$142 +2%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 02 $498 +$2 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 29 $116 −$116 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 28 $4,995 +$5 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026? Apr 26 $498 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 24 $995 +$1 +0%
Will X-Energy not IPO before June 2026? Apr 24 $541 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $498 +$2 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 22 $526 +$74 +14%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $940 +$60 +6%
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026? Apr 14 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran meeting by May 31, 2026? Apr 14 $456 +$44 +10%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $1,191 +$36 +3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 08 $2,342 +$48 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $404 11m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $998 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY Yes 0¢ $20 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $594 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $998 1h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $1,401 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $595 25h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $993 26h
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $1,996 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 26h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $997 26h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $999 26h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1,934 40h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $2,994 40h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? SELL No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Jordan win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $4,512 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $4,984 3d
New pandemic in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $2,034 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? SELL No 100¢ $999 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $114 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,998 4d
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,285 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $357 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $175 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $1,878 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $2,991 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $977 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $977 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23,026.61 · official $23,026.61 (match) · 991 history records