Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:21:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7cb…22ba sports 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+3%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Drawdown58%max
Avg bet$136per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 37% +$82
politics 20% +$9
world 16% +$12
other 11% +$1
economics 5% +$1
tech 5% $0
crypto 5% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -21.9% -29.3% 25% 25% +0.0%
all 25 -3.4% -12.6% 44% 8% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 8% -6.8%
10% -21.0% 4% -15.8%
15% -28.6% 4% -23.9%
20% -35.6% 4% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$12 · ×1.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.71 per $1 lost it wins $1.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage231d
Avg bet$136
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $23 −$22 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 23 $120 −$119 -99%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 01 $421 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Predators Mar 23 $197 +$223 +113%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $197 +$3 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 02 $192 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? Jan 30 $195 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Jan 25 $181 +$9 +5%
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? Jan 19 $179 +$1 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in January? Jan 15 $1 $0 -20%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 13 $182 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 07 $185 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 30 $178 $0 -0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? Dec 24 $184 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $4 $0 -6%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $176 $0 +0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Dec 03 $1 $0 +12%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 01 $185 −$1 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 28 $4 $0 -7%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 21 $177 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 19 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 14 $183 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 09 $3 $0 +10%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 05 $168 +$12 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $26 1h
Pistons vs. Cavaliers BUY Pistons 41¢ $23 37d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 78¢ $60 55d
Lakers vs. Rockets BUY Rockets 78¢ $60 55d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $420 78d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $421 81d
Golden Knights vs. Predators BUY Predators 47¢ $197 90d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $199 97d
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 98¢ $197 105d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 96¢ $193 107d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 96¢ $192 114d
US strikes Iran by January 27, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $195 142d
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $181 148d
US strikes Iran by January 18, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $179 151d
Will Solana dip to $80 in January? SELL Yes $1 154d
Will Solana dip to $80 in January? BUY Yes $1 155d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 95¢ $181 156d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $182 157d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 100¢ $185 170d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $178 170d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $178 171d
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 23? BUY No 99¢ $184 176d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $4 179d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes $4 183d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $176 189d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $176 191d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes $2 197d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes $1 198d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $183 198d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $185 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.82 · official $25.82 (match) · 54 history records