Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7cc…dbee other 261 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$78 (-0%) realized −$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%17W / 243L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$18
14 days−$30
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$40
sports 23% −$18
politics 9% −$7
culture 8% −$9
economics 5% −$6
world 5% −$4
crypto 4% −$5
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 170 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 260 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses17 / 243
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)260 / 261
History coverage143d
Avg bet$227
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $59 $59 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 21 $460 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $466 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $185 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $746 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 20 $479 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 20 $238 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $234 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 19 $464 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $407 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 19 $138 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $206 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $361 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $457 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $389 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $138 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $465 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $238 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $243 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $125 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $128 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $303 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $277 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $757 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $163 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $220 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $115 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $303 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $332 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $515 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $410 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $456 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 11 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $871 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $164 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $267 −$2 -1%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 08 $598 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $648 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $218 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $507 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $169 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $59 10m
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $59 1h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $59 3h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $59 10h
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $60 12h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 16h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $60 18h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $60 20h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $60 22h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $60 23h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $60 24h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $60 25h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $60 27h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 28h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 29h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $60 35h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 37h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $60 37h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $60 39h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $60 41h
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $60 42h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 42h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $7 43h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $61 44h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $61 46h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $61 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $61 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.30 · official $59.30 (match) · 1461 history records