Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:28:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7d5…5ee7 politics 350 markets active 21h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$50 (-7%) realized −$50 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate49%165W / 172L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$9
14 days−$40
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$18
sports 16% −$15
other 12% −$15
world 12% −$1
culture 8% −$1
tech 4% −$2
crypto 3% $0
finance 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -18.5% -26.3% 41% 9% -25.4%
≤30d 133 -15.7% -23.7% 39% 4% -22.8%
≤90d 337 -8.7% -17.4% 49% 3% -16.5%
all 337 -8.7% -17.4% 49% 3% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 3% -16.5%
10% -25.3% 2% -24.4%
15% -32.5% 0% -31.7%
20% -39.2% 0% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized−$50
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses165 / 172
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions13
Markets (closed)337 / 350
History coverage78d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? No 89¢ 88¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pam Bondi by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in June 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? No 98¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 99¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match? No 90¢ 93¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $950B by June 30? No 91¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? Jun 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "America" during UFC 250? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 16 $3 $0 -13%
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp Jun 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 16 $2 $0 -3%
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 16 $1 $0 -20%
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF Jun 16 $1 $0 -44%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? Jun 16 $1 $0 -19%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 +8%
Will FURIA reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -78%
Will Antonio Gracias be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 15 $1 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +7%
Will Trump speak to Friedrich Merz in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Republicans win the Montana Senate race in 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 -17%
Will Aurora reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -48%
Will anyone say "Planet" during Rick and Morty E4 S9? Jun 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will João Cancelo be in Portugal's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -91%
Will there be a double Breen “Bang” during the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 +23%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 13, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Tsuyoshi Watanabe be in Japan's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -89%
Will Wesley be in Brazil's Starting 11? Jun 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will The MongolZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -91%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Nicolás Maduro by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -26%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hasan Piker be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's Jun 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will N'Golo Kanté be in France's Starting 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Trump say "Transgender" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -54%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in June 2026? Jun 11 $2 $0 -1%
Will Wemby Cry During the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Will Trump praise Gianni Infantino by June 30? Jun 10 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump say "Sucker" this week? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 -1%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -74%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 10 $9 −$9 -100%
First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election? Jun 10 $3 −$1 -17%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit? Jun 09 $2 $0 -14%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -13%
Will B8 qualify to Stage 3 at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $2 −$1 -72%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Xi Jinping by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -15%
Will MOUZ reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 -15%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$1 -23%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mohammed bin Salman by June 30, 2026 Jun 09 $2 −$1 -54%
Will Trump say "Knicks" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Citizenship" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $6 $0 +1%
Will Trump say "Women's Sports" during Tele-Rally? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran coup attempt by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $1 21h
Will Bradley Barcola be in France's Starting 11? BUY No 99¢ $1 25h
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 100¢ $1 26h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor SELL No 87¢ $0 27h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 94¢ $1 28h
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $1 32h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 33h
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $1 35h
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Sp SELL No 97¢ $2 35h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 36h
Will Vitality reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1 38h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL No 60¢ $1 39h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL No 60¢ $0 39h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA SELL No 44¢ $0 39h
Will the announcers say "President" during the England vs Croatia FIFA BUY No 41¢ $1 40h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor SELL No 87¢ $0 40h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor SELL No 87¢ $0 40h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 41h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 86¢ $1 41h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF SELL No 57¢ $1 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL Yes 35¢ $1 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 55¢ $0 42h
Will Trump say “Thousand” or “Million” or “Billion” 5+ times during UF BUY No 100¢ $1 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL Yes 57¢ $2 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? SELL Yes 38¢ $0 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 19? BUY Yes 42¢ $1 45h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor SELL No 90¢ $1 45h
Will the announcers say "Trump" during the England vs Croatia FIFA Wor BUY No 90¢ $1 46h
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 85¢ $1 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.72 · official $23.73 (match) · 1240 history records