Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7d5…0cee sports 139 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%18W / 121L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 24% −$3
sports 21% −$3
politics 20% −$1
crypto 12% $0
economics 9% $0
culture 7% −$1
tech 4% $0
world 3% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
all 139 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses18 / 121
Open positions0
Markets (closed)139 / 139
History coverage155d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 139 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $146 −$1 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? May 25 $38 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 18 $35 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $113 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 16 $179 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 16 $194 $0 -0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Feb 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $84 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $72 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 16 $80 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 16 $54 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 16 $137 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 16 $91 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $177 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 16 $192 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 16 $48 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 16 $98 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Februa Feb 12 $101 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 12 $78 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 in February? Feb 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 12 $50 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 12 $58 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 12 $141 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Feb 12 $48 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 16, 2026? Feb 12 $45 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 10 $64 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 10 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 10 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 10 $47 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 12, 2026? Feb 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 10 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 10 $49 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 07 $59 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $44 1h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $44 9h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 98¢ $47 11d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $47 12d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $37 24d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $37 24d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $35 32d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $15 34d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 34d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $11 34d
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $6 34d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $41 120d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $41 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $47 120d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 120d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $47 120d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $42 123d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 123d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $43 123d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $43 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 97¢ $46 123d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $44 123d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $44 123d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $40 123d
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $40 123d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 97¢ $48 123d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $48 123d
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $43 123d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 608 history records