Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:21:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
F7 0xf7d5…0967 sports 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$838 (-29%) realized −$838 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$957per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$369
other 31% −$590
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-36.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -29.8% -36.5% 33% 33% -16.5%
≤30d 3 -29.8% -36.5% 33% 33% -16.5%
≤90d 3 -29.8% -36.5% 33% 33% -16.5%
all 3 -29.8% -36.5% 33% 33% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -36.5% 33% -16.5%
10% -42.5% 33% -24.5%
15% -48.1% 33% -31.8%
20% -53.2% 0% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$676 vs −$449 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$838
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$957
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $880 −$590 -67%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,529 +$676 +44%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $462 −$308 -67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 19¢ $291 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $880 4h
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL England 16¢ $154 5h
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY England 45¢ $462 12h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 68¢ $1,529 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records