Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:15:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7d6…cab5 sports 319 markets active 2h ago coverage 39d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$780 (-0%) realized −$951 · open +$171
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%210W / 271L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$724per market
Trades / day81.9pace
Fees−$1,843est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2,066now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 39d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$5,706
other 7% −$6,755
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 232 -65.3% -68.6% 18% 17% -71.2%
≤30d 390 -39.7% -45.4% 38% 36% -37.8%
≤90d 481 -30.9% -37.5% 44% 42% -23.7%
all 481 -30.9% -37.5% 44% 42% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover81.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.5% 42% -23.7%
10% -43.5% 31% -31.0%
15% ← realistic here -48.9% 20% -37.7%
20% -53.9% 11% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$648) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -63% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$294 vs −$403 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

39d coverage
Net worth$2,066
Realized−$951
Unrealized+$171
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses210 / 271
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$1,843
Open positions4
Markets (closed)481 / 319
History coverage39d ⚠
Avg bet$724
Trades / day81.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 481 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 77¢ 79¢ $1,541 $1,580 +$39 (+3%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $201 $335 +$134 (+67%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $86 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: United States (-1.5) Australia 66¢ 66¢ $66 $66 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 253 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Jun 19 $92 −$92 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-16.5) Jun 19 $51 −$51 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Jun 19 $600 −$600 -100%
Nuggets vs. Spurs Jun 19 $1,753 −$1,753 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $347 −$347 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Lakers vs. Kings Jun 19 $449 −$449 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $0 −$50 -15031%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $320 −$320 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$49 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Rockets vs. Lakers Jun 19 $373 −$373 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $184 −$184 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 19 $8 −$8 -100%
Hawks vs. Mavericks Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs REKONIX - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $88 −$88 -100%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $76 −$76 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons: O/U 203.5 Jun 19 $162 −$162 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Warriors vs. Trail Blazers Jun 19 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Jun 19 $1,428 −$2,076 -145%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs REKONIX (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs Jun 19 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs FlyQuest (BO3) Jun 19 $500 −$500 -100%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 Jun 19 $216 −$216 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 19 $1,773 −$1,773 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 19 $58 −$266 -460%
Will Lebron announce marketing stunt Tuesday? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $226 −$226 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $246 −$246 -100%
76ers vs. Rockets Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 220.5 Jun 19 $250 −$250 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 19 $877 −$877 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 66¢ $67 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $88 1h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Zero Tenacity 64¢ $64 12h
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Zero Tenacity 57¢ $23 13h
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Zero Tenacity 57¢ $92 13h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Zero Tenacity 80¢ $101 13h
Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) BUY Zero Tenacity 55¢ $3 13h
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Flame Team (BO3) - European Pro League Playof BUY Zero Tenacity 78¢ $13 13h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO3) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 60¢ $203 13h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 65¢ $197 13h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 59¢ $59 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 80¢ $80 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 83¢ $83 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 84¢ $20 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 84¢ $52 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 84¢ $5 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 84¢ $6 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 65¢ $66 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 80¢ $80 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 89¢ $89 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 89¢ $89 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Resilience 90¢ $90 20h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 43¢ $44 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 69¢ $83 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 69¢ $17 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 69¢ $17 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 69¢ $4 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 69¢ $34 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Team Resilience 69¢ $17 21h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Resilience 67¢ $68 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,065.83 · official $2,065.83 (match) · 3500 history records