Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T00:58:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7d7…e943 other 205 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$681 (-2%) realized −$672 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate73%149W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$192now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$145
14 days+$145
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$356
sports 38% −$395
crypto 3% +$28
world 1% +$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +17.2% +6.1% 89% 44% -2.7%
≤30d 13 -10.4% -18.9% 69% 31% -13.4%
≤90d 56 -10.6% -19.1% 61% 29% -11.5%
all 203 -6.3% -15.2% 73% 25% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 25% -11.7%
10% -23.3% 9% -20.2%
15% -30.7% 6% -27.9%
20% -37.5% 3% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$54 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$192
Realized−$672
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses149 / 54
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)203 / 205
History coverage230d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 203 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 94¢ 92¢ $191 $187 −$4 (-2%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $213 +$9 +4%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $221 +$16 +7%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $97 +$91 +94%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $308 −$137 -44%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $323 +$48 +15%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $220 +$30 +14%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $175 +$13 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $247 +$3 +1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $127 +$72 +57%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $91 +$9 +10%
Burnley FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 1.5 May 28 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-26? May 28 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 28 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $184 +$11 +6%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 15 $86 +$41 +47%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 14 $59 −$2 -2%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $188 +$11 +6%
Spread: Olympique Lyonnais (-2.5) Apr 19 $129 +$15 +12%
Spread: Cavaliers (-18.5) Apr 18 $10 −$2 -22%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) Apr 18 $11 −$2 -23%
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5) Apr 18 $38 −$8 -21%
Spread: Real Oviedo (-1.5) Apr 12 $358 −$344 -96%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) Apr 12 $286 −$73 -26%
Spread: Tottenham Hotspur FC (-2.5) Apr 12 $209 +$10 +5%
NEC vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam: O/U 1.5 Apr 12 $6 −$3 -47%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $226 +$2 +1%
Burnley FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 11 $16 −$6 -41%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $16 −$6 -38%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $105 +$13 +13%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $246 +$14 +6%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $8 −$7 -90%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $190 +$4 +2%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $174 +$29 +17%
Barcelona vs. Panathinaikos Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will AEK win on 2026-04-09? Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-09? Apr 09 $69 −$8 -12%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $198 +$21 +11%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $240 +$10 +4%
Udinese Calcio vs. Como 1907: O/U 1.5 Apr 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 06 $223 +$8 +4%
Sheffield Wednesday FC vs. Leicester City FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 06 $15 +$10 +68%
Deportivo Alavés vs. CA Osasuna: O/U 2.5 Apr 05 $21 +$9 +42%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $195 +$9 +5%
Will SC Heerenveen win on 2026-04-05? Apr 05 $201 +$96 +48%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $2 +$1 +72%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $13 −$5 -42%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $65 +$19 +29%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $340 +$9 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $191 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $213 25h
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $6 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 99¢ $238 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $221 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $188 3d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $97 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 46¢ $148 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 46¢ $23 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $71 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $237 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $371 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $53 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 90¢ $270 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $250 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $41 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $7 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $7 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $37 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $18 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $73 5d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 88¢ $37 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? SELL No 99¢ $188 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 92¢ $9 5d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 92¢ $166 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $250 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 99¢ $226 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.75 · official $191.75 (match) · 923 history records