Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:23:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

F7 0xf7db…d23a other 9 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$8 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip

Net edge-34%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%3W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$124per market

Trades / day3.1pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit22%portable

Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)-30.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	8	-23.7%	-30.9%	38%	38%	-11.2%
≤30d	8	-23.7%	-30.9%	38%	38%	-11.2%
≤90d	8	-23.7%	-30.9%	38%	38%	-11.2%
all	8	-23.7%	-30.9%	38%	38%	-11.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-30.9%	38%	-11.2%
10%	-37.5%	38%	-19.7%
15%	-43.6%	38%	-27.5%
20%	-49.1%	38%	-34.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 53% · top 2 99% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -24% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$117 vs −$74 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.95 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$50

Realized+$8

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses3 / 5

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)8 / 9

History coverage4d

Avg bet$124

Trades / day3.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 8 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	6¢	6¢	$50	$50	−$0 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$51	−$50	-98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$336	+$186	+55%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$176	+$160	+91%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$102	−$102	-100%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 14	$191	−$15	-8%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$6	+$4	+72%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	6¢	$52	2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	65¢	$51	21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$522	36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	63¢	$336	38h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$336	3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	51¢	$176	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	SELL Yes	33¢	$176	3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	34¢	$191	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	49¢	$102	3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$102	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$11	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	76¢	$1	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	54¢	$5	4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	58¢	$102	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.56 · official $49.56 (match) · 17 history records