Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7dd…12f0 sports 160 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$346 (-5%) realized −$114 · open −$232
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%69W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$323
7 days−$471
14 days−$529
30 days−$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$703
other 3% −$13
crypto 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 -2.0% -11.3% 47% 47% -26.3%
≤30d 130 -12.7% -21.0% 42% 42% -16.5%
≤90d 156 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 44% -15.9%
all 156 -9.9% -18.5% 44% 44% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 44% -15.9%
10% -26.3% 44% -24.0%
15% -33.4% 42% -31.3%
20% -40.0% 38% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$38 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$114
Unrealized−$232
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses69 / 87
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions4
Markets (closed)156 / 160
History coverage44d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 11¢ 3¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-73%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 46¢ 0¢ $154 $0 −$154 (-100%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs FUT Esports 34¢ 0¢ $70 $0 −$70 (-100%)
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $28 +$16 +58%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $121 +$41 +34%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $31 +$48 +159%
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World Jun 16 $33 −$33 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $20 +$11 +54%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 16 $20 +$10 +51%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $132 −$130 -99%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $105 −$96 -92%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $224 −$222 -99%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $20 +$31 +152%
Will Josh Hokit win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $30 +$23 +76%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $30 +$23 +76%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $31 +$46 +151%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $91 +$48 +53%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $86 +$117 +136%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $51 +$53 +105%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $81 −$79 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $51 +$91 +178%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $30 +$26 +86%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $328 +$101 +31%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $51 −$34 -66%
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 12 $54 +$35 +66%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $106 −$104 -98%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $41 +$40 +99%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $56 −$5 -9%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $254 −$250 -98%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $31 +$43 +142%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $76 −$75 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $61 −$60 -98%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $63 −$62 -98%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 07 $66 −$65 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 46¢ $106 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 47¢ $51 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 22¢ $10 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 43¢ $20 2h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $20 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $45 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL Leviatán Esports 99¢ $162 2h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 62¢ $28 3h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 74¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 32¢ $20 9h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY Leviatán Esports 69¢ $20 9h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY FUT Esports 33¢ $20 9h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 40¢ $10 9h
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs BUY HOTU 38¢ $10 10h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl SELL Cloud Rising 100¢ $79 10h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 39¢ $20 11h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Cloud Rising 36¢ $10 11h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY Mentality Monster 39¢ $10 12h
Dota 2: Mentality Monster vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - EPL World BUY Mentality Monster 60¢ $23 12h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers SELL Los Angeles Dodgers 100¢ $31 13h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Arizona Diamondbacks 99¢ $30 14h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 65¢ $20 14h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 64¢ $20 14h
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage BUY Heretics 21¢ $10 20h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 36¢ $31 22h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 69¢ $101 22h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Team Vitality 56¢ $85 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 8¢ $2 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 33¢ $20 23h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 71¢ $202 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.69 · official $1.80 (match) · 333 history records