Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:38:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf7dd…31ca other 113 markets active 2h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$125 (+0%) realized +$125 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate12%14W / 98L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$358per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$60now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$21
politics 35% −$17
sports 9% +$161
crypto 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
world 1% $0
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 103 +9.9% -0.6% 10% 8% -9.3%
all 112 +9.7% -0.8% 12% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.8% 10% -9.3%
10% -10.3% 8% -17.9%
15% -18.9% 5% -25.9%
20% -26.9% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +19% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$1 · ×18.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.67 per $1 lost it wins $2.67
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$60
Realized+$125
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses14 / 98
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)112 / 113
History coverage112d
Avg bet$358
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 13 $45 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 07 $47 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $265 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $332 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $323 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $319 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,267 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $675 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $307 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $277 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $478 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $346 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 01 $308 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 01 $632 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $270 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $348 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $370 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $292 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $670 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $265 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $278 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 27 $348 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $367 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $626 −$1 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $362 $0 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $353 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $965 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 24 $325 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 24 $669 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $332 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $1,261 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $259 $0 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 22 $335 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $355 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $306 $0 -0%
Will San Marino win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $312 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $295 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $721 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $324 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $322 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 18 $351 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $282 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $296 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $312 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $581 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $60 1h
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $45 6d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $45 10d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $47 12d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $47 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $265 20d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $265 24d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $332 30d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $332 31d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $254 31d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $255 35d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $323 36d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $323 43d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $319 43d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $319 43d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $362 44d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $362 44d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $317 45d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $317 45d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $307 45d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $307 46d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $277 46d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $277 47d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $271 47d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $271 48d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $374 48d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $375 48d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $346 48d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $346 48d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $308 48d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $59.97 · official $59.97 (match) · 333 history records