Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
F7 0xf7e5…cebb sports 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 21d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL +$2,151 (+35%) realized +$2,149 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +58% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +37% what you keep after slip
Net edge+37%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%28W / 29L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$692now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,113
7 days+$1,674
14 days+$1,835
30 days+$1,838
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 53% +$461
sports 44% +$1,377
crypto 2% −$1
tech 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+42.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +62.2% +46.8% 48% 48% +14.9%
≤30d 57 +57.5% +42.5% 49% 47% +15.9%
≤90d 57 +57.5% +42.5% 49% 47% +15.9%
all 57 +57.5% +42.5% 49% 47% +15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.5% 47% +15.9%
10% +28.8% 46% +4.8%
15% +16.4% 42% -5.3%
20% +5.0% 39% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +131% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$126 vs −$59 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.08 per $1 lost it wins $2.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$692
Realized+$2,149
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses28 / 29
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions4
Markets (closed)57 / 63
History coverage21d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $430 $433 +$3 (+1%)
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 62¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $110 $109 −$1 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 34¢ 34¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $132 −$130 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $137 −$135 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $111 +$53 +48%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $547 +$390 +71%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 +$116 +114%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $521 +$297 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $292 +$504 +172%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $20 +$25 +124%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $204 −$200 -98%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $192 −$190 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $10 −$2 -18%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $81 −$80 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 +$91 +90%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$1 -10%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $254 +$172 +68%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $31 +$41 +134%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $118 −$79 -67%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $32 −$23 -72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$39 +76%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $58 +$74 +129%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $102 +$155 +152%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $25 +$46 +180%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $24 +$37 +152%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $12 +$588 +4757%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $76 +$74 +97%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 +$126 +124%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $20 +$7 +32%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $20 +$4 +21%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 14 $24 −$23 -97%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $540 −$468 -87%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $44 −$43 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$229 +1521%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $504 +$176 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $253 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 34¢ $41 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $162 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $111 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $111 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $71 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 5h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 90¢ $10 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 7h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $41 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 7h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $34 17h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $146 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $74 18h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 12¢ $1 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 18h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $111 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 19h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 23h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 29h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY 11¢ $15 29h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 29h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $10 32h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $20 32h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $102 32h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $15 43h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $16 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $692.21 · official $692.22 (match) · 138 history records