Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:29:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F7 0xf7e5…a830 crypto 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$39 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%30W / 39L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$7,072now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$14
14 days+$77
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% −$102
sports 4% +$182
crypto 3% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -94.1% -94.7% 0% 0% -94.7%
≤30d 69 -10.6% -19.1% 43% 41% +1.0%
≤90d 69 -10.6% -19.1% 43% 41% +1.0%
all 69 -10.6% -19.1% 43% 41% +1.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 41% +1.0%
10% -26.9% 39% -8.7%
15% -33.9% 38% -17.5%
20% -40.4% 35% -25.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$7,072
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses30 / 39
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions14
Markets (closed)69 / 83
History coverage24d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 60¢ $1,404 $1,366 −$38 (-3%)
Will England reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 62¢ $1,200 $1,322 +$122 (+10%)
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $1,200 $1,266 +$66 (+5%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 52¢ 60¢ $900 $1,032 +$132 (+15%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 40¢ $1,213 $975 −$238 (-20%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $800 $734 −$66 (-8%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $120 $142 +$22 (+18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $70 $57 −$13 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $80 $54 −$26 (-32%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $30 $39 +$10 (+32%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 46¢ 46¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 40¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $30 $21 −$9 (-31%)
World Cup: Most Player Goals Record Broken? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $15 −$14 -94%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $25 +$28 +109%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 13 $11 +$14 +127%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $15 +$38 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $13 +$21 +165%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $25 +$36 +140%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $51 −$4 -8%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$6 -54%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $3 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$2 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$3 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 09 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$11 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 09 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$4 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$8 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$7 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 3¢ $1 4m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $15 30m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $5 38m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 40¢ $25 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 46¢ $25 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $53 8d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 44¢ $1 8d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 44¢ $9 8d
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY United States 44¢ $1 8d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 43¢ $10 8d
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 8d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $25 9d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 9d
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 27¢ $47 9d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $13 9d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $25 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 10d
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 10d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $8 10d
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 21¢ $48 10d
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 60¢ $105 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $0 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $3 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7,071.68 · official $7,071.68 (match) · 186 history records