Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf7e6…f87c other 682 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$606 (+11%) realized +$546 · open +$60
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate26%164W / 462L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$583now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$34
7 days+$367
14 days+$349
30 days+$515
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$179
sports 18% +$244
crypto 14% +$122
world 9% +$19
politics 4% +$2
tech 3% +$131
culture 3% −$6
finance 1% −$6
economics 0% −$6
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +97.8% +78.9% 68% 68% +31.6%
≤30d 53 +65.4% +49.6% 55% 51% +23.5%
≤90d 169 +42.4% +28.9% 38% 34% +10.0%
all 626 +9.5% -0.9% 26% 23% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 23% +0.3%
10% -10.4% 22% -9.3%
15% -19.0% 19% -18.0%
20% -27.0% 18% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$4 · ×3.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.38 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$583
Realized+$546
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses164 / 462
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions31
Markets (closed)626 / 682
History coverage232d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 626 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 50¢ 79¢ $50 $79 +$30 (+60%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 54¢ 74¢ $53 $73 +$20 (+37%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 37¢ 50¢ $37 $50 +$14 (+36%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $43 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 60¢ 60¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $28 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Brazil 51¢ 52¢ $26 $26 +$1 (+3%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 52¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+7%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 53¢ 52¢ $26 $26 −$1 (-3%)
Will Ethereum hit $1,000 or $3,000 first? $1,000 27¢ 54¢ $13 $25 +$12 (+98%)
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $23 $22 −$1 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$3 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $9 $12 +$3 (+35%)
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? Yes 15¢ 25¢ $6 $11 +$4 (+67%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Yes 47¢ 22¢ $23 $11 −$13 (-54%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? Yes 75¢ 100¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+33%)
MagicBlock FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 40¢ 45¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $7 −$3 (-28%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Betmoar FDV above $20M one day after launch? Yes 77¢ 56¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-27%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $4 $5 +$1 (+12%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Decibel FDV above $100M one day after launch? No 55¢ 77¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $59 +$41 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $24 +$26 +105%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 +$25 +97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $38 −$37 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 −$21 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $52 −$51 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $21 +$29 +134%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $24 +$26 +105%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $85 +$25 +30%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 +$30 +152%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$48 -48%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $25 −$24 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Jun 17 $10 +$34 +331%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $18 +$22 +124%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$20 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $17 +$23 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $56 +$44 +79%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $20 +$20 +97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $16 +$84 +510%
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +257%
Nothing Ever Happens: June Jun 13 $22 −$11 -50%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $49 +$51 +105%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? AND Will United Jun 13 $10 +$63 +617%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 12 $3 +$14 +451%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 12 $27 +$10 +35%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $13 −$11 -85%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $70 +$30 +44%
Will "The Witness" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on J Jun 11 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Jun 11 $4 +$30 +871%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 09 $118 +$4 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Jun 09 $8 −$3 -37%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 07 $61 +$6 +10%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $29 +$71 +249%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $9 −$9 -100%
Will "The Four Seasons: Season 2" be the top US Netflix show this week Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 03 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $22 +$78 +351%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? Jun 02 $4 −$1 -18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $7 −$1 -17%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -13%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 02 $2 $0 -15%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? Jun 01 $74 +$25 +34%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 26 $9 +$10 +106%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 25 $10 −$6 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $28 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $43 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $27 9h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $26 9h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $23 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $43 13h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) AND Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 AND Will United St BUY $21 13h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 26h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $38 32h
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $21 33h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $24 33h
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $25 33h
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) AND Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will BUY 12¢ $21 33h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $52 33h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $85 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 41¢ $52 46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $9 46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $0 46h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $20 47h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $21 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $24 2d
Spread: Ghana (-1.5) AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colom BUY 20¢ $20 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $18 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $18 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $17 3d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $20 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $582.74 · official $602.74 · 1827 history records