Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

F7
0xf7e6…98e7
crypto · 611 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$116 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$117 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$117
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses420 / 190
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)610 / 611
History coverage208d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 610 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$20
7 days+$32
14 days+$41
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 80¢ 81¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
India ODI Series: India vs South Africa (Game 2) India 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - November 19, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Hornets Bulls 64¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - November 29, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22? Yes 61¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 67¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Mavericks vs. Nuggets Nuggets 69¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Rockets Rockets 66¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 14, 5PM ET Up 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Up 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 29, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 92¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Up 14¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 2, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Lakers vs. Knicks Lakers 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - November 27, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 15, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Up 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$9 +167%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $7 +$12 +159%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $59 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $14 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $13 −$3 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $19 +$5 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $12 +$6 +45%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $12 −$2 -19%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5 +$4 +87%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $22 +$7 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $14 −$13 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $11 −$3 -26%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $6 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $10 +$7 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $8 −$5 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 800-839 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $10 +$7 +65%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $19 +$4 +23%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $2 $0 +16%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $6 +$2 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $10 +$3 +26%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 26 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $12 +$5 +41%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? May 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $16 −$13 -79%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $12 +$5 +38%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $3 +$1 +23%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $10 +$7 +72%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $34 −$34 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026? May 15 $18 −$9 -49%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $36 +$1 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 15 $30 −$3 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 12 $18 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 09 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? May 06 $7 +$2 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $12 +$2 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? May 01 $15 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Apr 29 $15 +$2 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 28 $15 +$2 +13%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $13 +$4 +33%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026? Apr 25 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Apr 25 $6 −$6 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 67% −$149
other 27% +$120
sports 5% −$101
politics 0% +$13
world 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 13m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 17¢ $2 16m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 37¢ $1 44m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 41¢ $0 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 39¢ $0 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 34¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $5 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $1 4h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 5h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 58¢ $3 11h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 57¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $0 11h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $1 11h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $1 12h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $1 19h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 19h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 19h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 24h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $25 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $24 35h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $49 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 36h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +37.7% +24.6% 60% 50% +11.2%
≤30d 39 +13.9% +3.0% 64% 59% -3.7%
≤90d 301 -0.0% -9.6% 71% 54% -12.1%
all 610 -1.4% -10.8% 69% 53% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 53% -10.4%
10% -19.3% 41% -19.0%
15% -27.1% 31% -26.8%
20% -34.2% 20% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.56 · official $30.56 (match) · 1680 history records