Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:29:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf7e8…685e politics 126 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$45 (+0%) realized +$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate10%13W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$291per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$19
politics 43% −$20
sports 5% +$80
tech 4% −$2
crypto 3% −$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 13 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 115 +0.7% -8.9% 9% 7% -9.5%
all 125 +1.0% -8.6% 10% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 9% -9.4%
10% -17.3% 6% -18.1%
15% -25.3% 4% -26.0%
20% -32.6% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$1 · ×11.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.34 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses13 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage114d
Avg bet$291
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 125 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 14 $28 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $77 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $368 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $47 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $43 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $29 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $251 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $279 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $327 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $296 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $241 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $338 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $267 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 17 $269 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $510 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $1,222 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $490 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $339 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 11 $554 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $309 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $645 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $291 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $320 −$1 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $236 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $254 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $241 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $296 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $260 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $250 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $1,209 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 02 $279 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $565 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 28 $330 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $272 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 22 $256 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $572 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $280 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $961 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $309 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 20 $350 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $265 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $315 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $41 2h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $42 27h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $42 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $28 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $41 6d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $41 6d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 9d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 10d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 11d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $40 12d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $40 13d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $47 14d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $43 20d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $43 20d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $29 21d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $29 21d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $251 25d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $251 26d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $279 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $279 28d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $346 28d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $346 28d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $327 29d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $327 29d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $296 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $40.98 · official $40.98 (match) · 357 history records