Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7ea…6abc sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$154 (-64%) realized −$196 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -96% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -96% what you keep after slip
Net edge-96%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$196
7 days−$196
14 days−$196
30 days−$196
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$186
sports 8% −$11
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-96.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -95.6% -96.0% 0% 0% -88.5%
≤30d 3 -95.6% -96.0% 0% 0% -88.5%
≤90d 3 -95.6% -96.0% 0% 0% -88.5%
all 3 -95.6% -96.0% 0% 0% -88.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -96.0% 0% -88.5%
10% -96.4% 0% -89.6%
15% -96.7% 0% -90.6%
20% -97.0% 0% -91.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -96% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$65 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$196
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)3 / 5
History coverage4d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 40¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-14%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? No 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 13 $214 −$186 -87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.75 · official $7.75 (match) · 10 history records