Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:44:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F7 0xf7ec…0931 crypto 86 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,070 (-34%) realized −$1,500 · open +$430
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate30%25W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$458now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$94
7 days−$144
14 days−$390
30 days−$1,519
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% −$799
crypto 27% −$186
sports 8% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-47.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -33.8% -40.1% 35% 32% -20.9%
≤30d 83 -42.3% -47.8% 30% 29% -54.4%
≤90d 83 -42.3% -47.8% 30% 29% -54.4%
all 83 -42.3% -47.8% 30% 29% -54.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.8% 29% -54.4%
10% -52.8% 27% -58.8%
15% -57.3% 22% -62.7%
20% -61.5% 18% -66.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -50% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -48% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$36 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$458
Realized−$1,500
Unrealized+$430
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses25 / 58
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)83 / 86
History coverage65d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 2¢ 72¢ $10 $452 +$442 (+4425%)
Will Emiliano Grillo win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-54%)
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 21 $61 −$39 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +38%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 20 $205 +$33 +16%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $101 +$63 +62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $19 +$71 +365%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$10 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 18 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$10 -94%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Collin Morikawa win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tom Kim win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Wyndham Clark win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $35 +$40 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$36 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET SELL Up 88¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 1h
Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 8¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $10 3h
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? SELL Yes 18¢ $238 9h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 21h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 21h
Will Emiliano Grillo win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 37h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 38h
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 2d
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $458.17 · official $458.17 (match) · 157 history records