Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:32:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

F7 0xf7ef…afa1 crypto 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d

BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ bot/MM pace (82 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$304 (+7%) realized +$300 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip

Net edge-20%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate61%14W / 9L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$180per market

Trades / day82.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit88%portable

Net worth$124now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

uncopyable — bot pace (82 trades/day)

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)-6.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+3.6%	-6.2%	61%	57%	-11.2%
≤30d	23	+3.6%	-6.2%	61%	57%	-11.2%
≤90d	23	+3.6%	-6.2%	61%	57%	-11.2%
all	23	+3.6%	-6.2%	61%	57%	-11.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover82.1 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-6.2%	57%	-11.2%
10% ← realistic here	-15.2%	52%	-19.7%
15%	-23.4%	43%	-27.5%
20%	-30.9%	30%	-34.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

7% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +37% → late -27% edge faded

Add-ons / DCA

3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$91 vs −$150 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.94 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$124

Realized+$300

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)61%

Wins / losses14 / 9

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)23 / 25

History coverage1d

Avg bet$180

Trades / day82.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 23 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Portugal	69¢	68¢	$70	$68	−$2 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	Up	48¢	54¢	$50	$56	+$6 (+11%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	Jun 23	$256	+$127	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	Jun 23	$203	+$56	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	Jun 23	$52	−$50	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	Jun 23	$105	−$105	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	Jun 23	$156	−$156	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 23	$613	+$30	+5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 23	$104	−$97	-93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 23	$155	+$162	+104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	Jun 23	$103	+$56	+55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 23	$202	+$40	+20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 23	$53	−$50	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Jun 23	$68	−$68	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET	Jun 23	$180	−$180	-100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET	Jun 23	$312	−$155	-50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$16	+62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$10	+38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 23	$930	−$488	-52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET	Jun 23	$206	+$203	+98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 23	$270	+$267	+99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$61	+$33	+55%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 23	$101	+$28	+27%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists	Jun 23	$102	+$193	+189%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$101	+$46	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET	BUY Up	48¢	$52	1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$52	4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	70¢	$102	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET	BUY Down	71¢	$102	5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$52	13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$102	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET	BUY Down	77¢	$102	16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Up	76¢	$261	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	86¢	$303	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Up	80¢	$287	19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	51¢	$103	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$103	20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	SELL Up	49¢	$95	23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Up	50¢	$104	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	SELL Down	3¢	$7	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	38¢	$104	27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	12¢	$53	29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	49¢	$52	30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET	BUY Up	61¢	$51	31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$52	37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$103	39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Down	16¢	$53	40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$52	41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$103	45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Down	90¢	$101	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Down	76¢	$102	50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Down	39¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$5	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$26	1h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $124.21 · official $136.71 · 105 history records