Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:17:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
F7 0xf7f0…912c sports 266 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1756 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$365,181 (+126%) realized +$362,931 · open +$2,250
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate62%110W / 66L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$1,093per market
Trades / day1756.1pace
Fees−$2,041est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$55,438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$43,553
other 11% +$3,230
crypto 0% +$407
world 0% −$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1756 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +25.8% +13.8% 62% 51% +7.8%
≤30d 176 +25.8% +13.8% 62% 51% +7.8%
≤90d 176 +25.8% +13.8% 62% 51% +7.8%
all 176 +25.8% +13.8% 62% 51% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1756.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.8% 51% +7.8%
10% +2.9% 46% -2.5%
15% ← realistic here -7.0% 38% -12.0%
20% -16.2% 32% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$951) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +76% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$760 vs −$587 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.16 per $1 lost it wins $2.16
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$55,438
Realized+$362,931
Unrealized+$2,250
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses110 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$2,041
Open positions103
Markets (closed)176 / 266
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$1,093
Trades / day1756.1
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 103 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5 Under 98¢ 100¢ $5,324 $5,445 +$121 (+2%)
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) Uruguay 96¢ 97¢ $3,855 $3,886 +$31 (+1%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Egypt 83¢ 100¢ $3,152 $3,796 +$644 (+20%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Egypt 64¢ 100¢ $1,869 $2,925 +$1,056 (+57%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Under 97¢ 97¢ $2,704 $2,712 +$8 (+0%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 36¢ 100¢ $920 $2,507 +$1,588 (+173%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 80¢ 80¢ $2,379 $2,385 +$6 (+0%)
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Belgium 95¢ 100¢ $2,003 $2,099 +$96 (+5%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 100¢ $1,058 $2,090 +$1,031 (+97%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 100¢ $1,514 $2,089 +$575 (+38%)
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 89¢ 88¢ $1,736 $1,730 −$6 (-0%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 4.5 Under 87¢ 100¢ $1,451 $1,671 +$221 (+15%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 Under 89¢ 89¢ $1,314 $1,314 +$0 (+0%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Saudi Arabia 59¢ 58¢ $1,247 $1,228 −$19 (-2%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Under 95¢ 96¢ $1,063 $1,070 +$7 (+1%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? No 81¢ 81¢ $1,021 $1,027 +$6 (+1%)
Spread: IR Iran (-2.5) New Zealand 89¢ 90¢ $866 $869 +$4 (+0%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Over 93¢ 100¢ $802 $862 +$60 (+7%)
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) IR Iran 98¢ 99¢ $823 $829 +$5 (+1%)
Spread: New Zealand (-1.5) IR Iran 94¢ 94¢ $790 $794 +$4 (+1%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 0.5 Over 88¢ 90¢ $743 $752 +$8 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? No 88¢ 88¢ $743 $743 +$0 (+0%)
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Under 81¢ 81¢ $691 $695 +$4 (+1%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 10.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $634 $611 −$23 (-4%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? No 48¢ 46¢ $609 $573 −$36 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - December 9, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$6 +208%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $416 +$4 +1%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $815 +$25 +3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $655 +$2,705 +413%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $18,886 +$4,280 +23%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,309 +$2,300 +70%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $5,875 +$1,936 +33%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4,638 +$6,643 +143%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $320 +$3,220 +1007%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $3,377 +$2,083 +62%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $4,063 +$9,304 +229%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $2,424 +$1,357 +56%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $979 +$701 +72%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $549 +$576 +105%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $2,175 +$650 +30%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $7,790 +$3,568 +46%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $626 +$634 +101%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $332 +$195 +59%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2,259 −$2,259 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 15 $827 +$13 +2%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $4 $0 +2%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $745 −$745 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $78 −$18 -23%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 15 $29 −$29 -100%
Spread: Golden Knights (-3.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $214 +$149 +70%
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $127 −$127 -100%
Spread: New York Liberty (-11.5) Jun 15 $28 +$23 +85%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-6.5) Jun 15 $225 −$186 -83%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $44 −$44 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 10.5 Jun 15 $160 −$160 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $239 −$239 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $302 −$302 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $529 −$109 -21%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 15 $197 −$197 -100%
Will EC Juventude vs. AA Ponte Preta end in a draw? Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $227 +$193 +85%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $958 −$118 -12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 15 $193 −$193 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 15 $189 −$189 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $206 −$206 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $210 −$210 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 15 $193 −$193 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $605 −$185 -31%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $143 −$143 -100%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $290 −$290 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $191 2m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $33 3m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Las Vegas Aces 60¢ $252 3m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 59¢ $248 4m
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $328 5m
Criciúma EC vs. Ceará SC: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $1 5m
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 63¢ $265 6m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $189 6m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 97¢ $407 7m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $19 9m
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 80¢ $336 9m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 89¢ $8 9m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 74¢ $311 10m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $8 11m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $9 12m
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 45¢ $189 12m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 97¢ $407 12m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $11 12m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 8¢ $5 13m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $73 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $9 14m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $259 14m
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $189 14m
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 80¢ $87 15m
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 80¢ $90 15m
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 80¢ $159 15m
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 81¢ $340 16m
Spread: New Zealand (-2.5) BUY IR Iran 98¢ $412 17m
Spread: Saudi Arabia (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 97¢ $407 17m
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $13 18m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55,438.30 · official $55,438.02 (match) · 3500 history records