Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:44:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
F7 0xf7f1…b5c0 crypto 72 markets active 1h ago coverage 62d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$130 (+0%) realized +$129 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate59%42W / 29L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$465per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$9
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$343
crypto 3% −$238
world 1% +$4
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-30.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -20.6% -28.1% 50% 50% -31.1%
≤30d 24 -18.5% -26.3% 58% 38% -11.2%
≤90d 71 -23.6% -30.9% 59% 37% -9.0%
all 71 -23.6% -30.9% 59% 37% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.9% 37% -9.0%
10% -37.5% 23% -17.7%
15% -43.5% 15% -25.7%
20% -49.1% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -27% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

62d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$129
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses42 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage62d
Avg bet$465
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 81¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -96%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $20 +$4 +18%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $150 +$2 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $13 +$2 +14%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 25 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 25 $15 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 25 $30 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 23 $11 +$9 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 23 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET May 23 $12 +$11 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 23 $13 −$12 -96%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? May 23 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO5) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 17 $35 +$16 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $40 +$7 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 14 $14 +$4 +28%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $20 +$10 +50%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S May 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 13 $30 +$5 +17%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Heroic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $10 +$4 +40%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $8 +$3 +32%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 10 $20 +$7 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 04 $4,872 +$61 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $100 +$10 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 03 $5,000 +$10 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 03 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Grou May 02 $30 +$9 +31%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 02 $5,001 +$42 +1%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $204 −$102 -50%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Apr 30 $5,096 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Astralis (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A Apr 30 $4,915 +$174 +4%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group B Apr 30 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Apr 29 $20 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $4 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $3 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Up 78¢ $4 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 7d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 11d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 SELL TYLOO 57¢ $24 12d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY TYLOO 47¢ $20 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $150 15d
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs ex-HEROIC (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY ex-HEROIC 100¢ $100 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $3 21d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $10 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $3 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $18 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $15 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $30 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $30 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $20 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.08 · official $6.08 (match) · 194 history records