Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:42:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7f1…01b3 politics 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 232d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate12%5W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 59% −$2
sports 15% −$1
other 10% −$1
culture 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
world 2% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 4 -5.4% -14.4% 25% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 7 -3.1% -12.3% 14% 0% -9.7%
all 41 -5.3% -14.3% 12% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 2% -9.7%
10% -22.5% 2% -18.3%
15% -30.0% 0% -26.2%
20% -36.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.28 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

232d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses5 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage232d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $80 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $88 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 03 $78 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $3 −$1 -21%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $156 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $79 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $166 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $2 $0 +29%
US government shutdown Saturday? Feb 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $82 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 26 $79 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $80 $0 -0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $82 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $80 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $83 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 11 $84 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 09 $83 $0 -0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $81 $0 +0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 04 $83 $0 -0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 01 $83 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 29 $82 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 24 $164 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $83 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 19 $81 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $161 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 10 $151 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 08 $83 $0 -0%
Will PSV win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 08 $1 $0 -43%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $80 $0 +0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 30 $83 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 26 $85 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 22 $1 $0 -33%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 21 $82 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 15 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 12 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 12 $2 $0 -14%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Nov 10 $1 $0 -33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $80 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $80 23d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 23d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 25d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 27d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $78 28d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 28d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 30d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 31d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $76 31d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $77 33d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 33d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 35d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 35d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $78 35d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 36d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 36d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 37d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 37d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 38d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $83 49d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $83 118d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $79 126d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $79 135d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 135d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 142d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 144d
US government shutdown Saturday? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 147d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 263 history records