Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
F7 0xf7f2…d169 politics 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate11%16W / 124L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$12
politics 31% −$9
sports 10% +$8
tech 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
culture 2% $0
economics 2% −$1
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.7% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 88 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 140 +1.0% -8.6% 11% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 6% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 5% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 5% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 4% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×6.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses16 / 124
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage136d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? No 100¢ 100¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $33 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 22 $25 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $20 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $193 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 21 $19 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 $0 +0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 08 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $29 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 06 $20 $0 -0%
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $385 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $189 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $169 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $210 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $166 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $155 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $180 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $884 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $177 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $172 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $169 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $202 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $144 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $212 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 10 $214 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $192 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $369 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $751 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 18 $202 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $334 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 17 $195 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $184 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $146 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $202 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $360 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $215 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $190 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $173 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $200 $0 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $152 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $203 $0 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $207 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 14 $168 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $155 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 13 $193 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $33 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 1h
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 17h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $33 17h
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 18h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 39h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $32 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $32 3d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $19 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $26 3d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $24 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $24 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 9d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 10d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 10d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 14d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $24 16d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $24 16d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 16d
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $20 17d
Will Leo Zacky win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $22 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.97 · official $32.97 (match) · 387 history records