Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:29:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7f4…6f5f crypto 388 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-1%) realized +$107 · open −$204
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate80%308W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days+$85
14 days+$123
30 days−$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$319
crypto 17% −$43
other 16% +$214
weather 5% −$9
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +7.9% -2.3% 79% 32% -8.3%
≤30d 132 -11.4% -19.9% 65% 27% -10.2%
≤90d 386 -0.7% -10.2% 80% 25% -9.1%
all 386 -0.7% -10.2% 80% 25% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 25% -9.1%
10% -18.8% 12% -17.8%
15% -26.6% 7% -25.8%
20% -33.8% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$13 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$102
Realized+$107
Unrealized−$204
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses308 / 78
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)386 / 388
History coverage52d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 52¢ $150 $102 −$48 (-32%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half No 97¢ 0¢ $156 $0 −$156 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$2 +5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $139 +$194 +140%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $518 −$518 -100%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $423 +$96 +23%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $404 +$19 +5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $345 +$59 +17%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $321 +$24 +7%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $296 +$25 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $316 −$20 -6%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $356 −$41 -12%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $340 +$11 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $330 +$16 +5%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $298 +$32 +11%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $254 +$44 +17%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $251 −$1 -0%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $246 +$10 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $151 +$55 +36%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $37 +$2 +5%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $171 +$18 +11%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $150 +$14 +10%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $144 +$11 +7%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $111 +$15 +13%
César Huerta: 1+ goals Jun 11 $136 +$8 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $126 +$11 +8%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $134 −$23 -17%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $115 +$18 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $99 +$17 +17%
Togo leading at halftime? Jun 09 $97 +$2 +2%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $90 +$4 +4%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $87 +$6 +7%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $50 −$23 -45%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $90 +$19 +21%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $70 −$26 -37%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $70 +$3 +4%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $30 +$6 +19%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $60 +$1 +2%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $59 +$4 +6%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $56 +$3 +5%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $52 +$4 +8%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $40 +$2 +5%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $40 +$2 +5%
Will Cyprus win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $3 +$1 +17%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $40 +$4 +10%
Exact Score: Sierra Leone 0 - 0 Liberia? Jun 06 $50 −$18 -35%
Armenia vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $30 +$8 +28%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $40 +$5 +13%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $3 $0 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 97¢ $156 43m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $105 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 93¢ $49 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 95¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $151 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 41¢ $139 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 98¢ $518 21h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $519 22h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 81¢ $423 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 95¢ $404 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $404 45h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $345 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 94¢ $345 45h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 87¢ $321 45h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 92¢ $296 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 76¢ $296 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $157 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Over 88¢ $157 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $159 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Over 88¢ $158 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 92¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 96¢ $1 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Over 99¢ $356 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 97¢ $340 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Under 95¢ $330 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $330 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 90¢ $298 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $254 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $102.35 · official $110.15 · 957 history records