Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
F7 0xf7f4…19f4 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$92 (+24%) realized +$105 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +14% what you keep after slip
Net edge+14%after slip
Net WR82%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$99
7 days+$105
14 days+$105
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$58
other 15% +$46
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +82%
net ROI/market (all)+18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +31.4% +18.9% 91% 82% +25.2%
≤30d 11 +31.4% +18.9% 91% 82% +25.2%
≤90d 11 +31.4% +18.9% 91% 82% +25.2%
all 11 +31.4% +18.9% 91% 82% +25.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +18.9% 82% +25.2%
10% +7.5% 64% +13.2%
15% -2.9% 55% +2.2%
20% -12.4% 27% -7.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +38% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +31% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×5.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×53.26 per $1 lost it wins $53.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized+$105
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Over 61¢ 64¢ $102 $106 +$4 (+4%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$5 (-88%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 75¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $94 +$9 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $69 +$30 +44%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 +$39 +134%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$10 +52%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $18 +$3 +18%
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +20%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $9 +$6 +63%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $7 +$2 +24%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +37%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $103 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $103 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 90¢ $94 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 3h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 68¢ $69 4h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 42¢ $29 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $29 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 65¢ $19 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 75¢ $2 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $21 24h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 BUY Over 83¢ $18 26h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 27h
Switzerland to score first vs. Qatar? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 42h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 44h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $9 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 2d
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 BUY Over 80¢ $7 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $7 2d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 0.5 BUY Over 72¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.58 · official $106.58 (match) · 24 history records