Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:34:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
F7 0xf7fb…f5d5 crypto 29 markets active 5d ago coverage 340d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-8%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +2.2% -7.5% 72% 56% -17.9%
≤30d 28 -7.3% -16.2% 64% 50% -20.5%
≤90d 28 -7.3% -16.2% 64% 50% -20.5%
all 29 -7.5% -16.3% 62% 48% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.3% 48% -20.3%
10% -24.3% 34% -28.0%
15% -31.6% 17% -34.9%
20% -38.3% 7% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

340d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage340d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $9 −$3 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $109K on July 7 at 5PM ET? Jul 07 $10 −$1 -11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 13¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 22¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 70¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records